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Departments Election Issues Election results in Southwestern Ohio by Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D. December 21, 2004 Three contiguous counties in southwestern Ohio, all traditionally Republican counties, gave unexpectedly large margins to George W. Bush over John F. Kerry on election night. All three counties experienced a huge increase in voter turnout. In all three counties, Bush received a higher percentage of the vote than he did in the 2000 election, and Kerry received a lower percentage of the vote than Al Gore did in 2000. This study analyzes how it happened. In Warren County, the administrative building was locked down on election night, all in the name of "homeland security." No independent persons were allowed to observe the vote count. Compared to 2000, the population increased by 14.75%, the number of registered voters increased by 29.66%, voter turnout increased by 33.55%, Bush’s point spread increased from 42.24% to 44.58%, and Bush’s victory margin increased from 29,176 votes to 41,124 votes. In Clermont County, compared to 2000, the population increased by 4.39%, the number of registered voters increased by 10.20%, voter turnout increased by 24.86%, Bush's point spread increased from 37.50% to 41.69%, and Bush's victory margin increased from 26,202 votes to 36,376 votes. In Butler County, compared to 2000, the population increased by 3.12%, the number of registered voters increased by 10.06%, voter turnout increased by 18.18%, Bush's point spread increased from 29.40% to 32.52%, and Bush's victory margin increased from 40,197 votes to 52,550 votes. These three counties provided to George W. Bush a victory margin of 130,050 votes, nearly equal to his statewide margin of 136,483 votes. All the above data are figures provided on election night. It is preferable, when making comparisons, to use synoptic data, and as of this writing, not all counties have finalized their vote count. To analyze how the Republicans achieved their impressive victory margins, I have compared the results of the 2004 and 2000 presidential elections. Tables of data are arranged by city or township, showing vote totals for the candidates, pluralities, gains or losses, and the difference between the margins of 2004 and 2000. In this way it can be readily seen where the victory margins came from. BUTLER COUNTY St. Clair Township + 523 Rep. Dem. Plur. 2004 1,877 1,008 869 2000 1,466 1,120 346 Change 411 - 112 523 These election results are not credible. Voter turnout was up substantially (8.27%), yet Kerry got 10% fewer votes than Gore. Exactly. Precinct Bush Kerry Bush Gore 4KA 217 173 152 213 4KB 224 125 186 104 4KC 210 104 148 126 4KD 235 119 181 129 4KE 224 128 191 146 4KF 294 171 231 188 4KG 94 36 92 50 4KH 379 152 285 164 In fact, Kerry is reported to have received fewer votes than Gore in 7 of 8 precincts in St. Clair Township. Only Precinct 4KB appears realistic when compared with the 2000 results. Liberty Township + 3,078 Rep. Dem. Plur. 2004 11,629 3,404 8,225 2000 7,619 2,472 5,147 Change 4,010 932 3,078 Liberty Township accounted for 24.9% of the reported increase in Bush’s margin of victory in Butler County. Compared to 2000 there was reportedly a 41.02% increase in voter registration and a 46.43% increase in voter turnout. Upon closer examination these numbers are not credible. The increase in voter registration, as a percentage, is wildly distributed throughout the township. There are 20 precincts in Liberty Township, including one, Precinct 4DT, that did not exist in 2000. There were 11 precincts with less than a 30% increase in voter registration, 9 with less than 20%, 5 with less than 10%, and two that actually suffered a loss. Bush’s net gain in these 11 precincts was 571 votes. His big gains came in the 9 precincts with more than a 30% increase in voter registration: Prec. Regis. Bush Kerry Bush Gore Net Gain 4DA + 52.1% 632 161 423 89 + 137 4DB + 33.8% 727 229 547 186 + 137 4DC + 64.5% 635 201 360 117 + 191 4DF + 34.0% 723 158 511 131 + 185 4DG + 43.3% 704 185 505 129 + 143 4DI +177.9% 1,220 288 413 118 + 637 4DO +143.5% 979 270 358 96 + 447 4DP + 34.3% 600 181 431 143 + 131 4DT N.A. 676 177 N.A. N.A. + 499 Look at these numbers. In Precinct 4DI, the number of registered voters rose from 660 to 1,834. Bush’s share of the increased vote was 807 to 170, a net gain of 637 votes. In Precinct 4DO, the number of registered voters rose from 596 to 1,451. Bush’s share of the increase was 621 votes to 174 for Kerry, a net gain of 447 votes. In Precinct 4DT, the brand new one, Bush’s net gain was 499 votes. In these three precincts alone, Bush enjoyed a net gain of 1,583 votes, 51.43% of his net increase for the entire township, and 12.81% of his net increase for the entire county. Altogether these 9 precincts gave Bush a net gain of 2,507 votes. Or so they say. Monroe City + 782 Rep. Dem. Plur. 2004 3,399 1,401 1,998 2000 2,303 1,087 1,216 Change 1,096 314 782 In Monroe City the increase in voter registration, as a percentage, is also unevenly distributed. Prec. Regis. Bush Kerry Bush Gore Net Gain 4CA + 65.5% 496 219 272 138 + 143 4CB + 0.7% 461 188 395 198 + 76 4CC + 9.9% 604 216 511 209 + 86 5CA + 38.8% 560 227 336 164 + 161 5CB + 48.2% 279 129 176 80 + 54 5CC - 2.4% 272 102 229 109 + 50 5CD + 69.3% 727 320 384 189 + 212 Massive increases in the voter rolls in 4 of 7 precincts accounted for 72.3% of Bush’s net gain in Monroe City. The records will show whether or not these huge increases are real. In 2 of the other 3 precincts, Kerry got fewer votes than Gore even though voter turnout was up sharply. Trenton City + 785 Rep. Dem. Plur. 2004 3,153 1,510 1,643 2000 2,088 1,230 858 Change 1,065 280 785 In Trenton City the increase in voter registration is more evenly distributed, ranging from 7.08% to 36.94% among 7 precincts; and the net gains for George W. Bush are more evenly distributed, ranging from 81 votes to 170 votes among 7 precincts. The proof that the numbers are untrue is the distribution of votes among the candidates: Prec. Badnarik Bush Kerry Petrouka 4EA 2 464 249 0 4EB 2 661 272 0 4EC 2 373 191 0 4ED 3 395 248 1 5EA 30 284 115 0 5EB 0 468 243 0 5EC 2 508 192 2 Total 41 3,153 1,510 3 In Precinct 5EA, the only one of 7 precincts in which John Kerry was awarded fewer votes than Al Gore (22 fewer, to be exact), 30 votes have been shifted to the column of Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian candidate. There are 289 precincts in Butler County. Badnarik received 396 votes county wide, no more than 6 in any other precinct, yet 30 votes appear in his column in this one precinct in Trenton City. This is the very same pattern of election fraud that appears 11 times, on a larger scale, in the canvass reports for Cleveland. See “Stealing Votes in Cleveland,” at freepress.org/images/columns/steal_cleveland.pdf Ross Township + 512 Rep. Dem. Plur. 2004 2,830 927 1,903 2000 2,206 815 1,391 Change 624 112 512 In Ross Township, George W. Bush received 64.1% of his net gain in 3 precincts (4JA, 4JB, 4JE) where, altogether, Kerry received fewer votes than Gore: Prec. Turnout Bush Kerry Bush Gore Net Gain 4JA + 24.3% 447 120 330 116 + 113 4JB + 28.3% 537 138 389 128 + 138 4JC + 50.2% 549 197 373 118 + 97 4JD + 18.1% 464 125 403 98 + 34 4JE + 4.4% 183 67 135 96 + 77 4JF + 11.9% 400 190 352 162 + 20 4JG + 3.0% 250 90 224 97 + 33 Look at these numbers. In these 3 precincts, voter turnout was up by 22.1%. Bush’s share of the increase was 313 votes to a loss of 15 votes for Kerry. In the rest of Ross Township, where voter turnout was up by 22.3%, Bush’s share of the increase was 311 votes to 127 for Kerry. These vote totals, all within the same township, are inconsistent. Hanover Township + 555 Rep. Dem. Plur. 2004 3,262 1,197 2,065 2000 2,752 1,242 1,510 Change 510 -45 555 In Hanover Township the precinct lines have been redrawn during the last four years, making a precinct by precinct comparison impossible. But look at these numbers. Voter turnout was up 8.8%, from 4,170 to 4,537. Bush gained 510 votes, and Kerry received 45 fewer votes than Gore. These numbers are suspect. St. Clair Township, Liberty Township, Monroe City, Trenton City, Ross Township, and Hanover Township account for 50.47% of the increase in Bush’s margin of victory in Butler County. There are enough statistical irregularities in the canvass sheets to warrant examination of the voting records and close scrutiny during the recount. WARREN COUNTY There would be no easier county in Ohio in which to hack election results than Warren County. Unlike all other counties in the state, the canvass records of Warren County are not organized geographically. Not even the sum totals for cities and townships can be compared because the place names in the 2004 canvass records are not the same as they were in 2000. The names of the precincts are in code, and they appear on the canvass sheets in a fixed but random order. Only a sleuth would rearrange them into cities and townships, which, of course, is what I have done. Once the data are presented in a sensible format, the voter registration data is not as irregular as it appears when presented by the Board of Elections. The constantly changing precinct boundaries make data presented in that manner almost indecipherable. Still, when the data are combined according to cities, villages and townships, it can be seen that the increase in voter registration since 2000 ranged from 7.7% in Morrow Village to 79.0% in Hamilton Township, and was 29.66% county wide, which is more than double the population increase of 14.75%. George W. Bush carried Warren County by 41,992 votes, an increase of 12,816 over his plurality in 2000. Most of his plurality (28,869 votes, or 68.75%) and most of the increase in his margin of victory (9,047 votes, or 70.59%) came in six cities and townships: Lebanon City + 1,324 Reg. Rep. Dem. Plur. 2004 11,641 5,956 2,278 3,678 2000 8,795 4,011 1,657 2,354 Change +32.4% 1,945 621 1,324 Mason City + 2,009 Reg. Rep. Dem. Plur. 2004 19,221 10,858 3,805 7,053 2000 13,899 7,653 2,609 5,044 Change +38.3% 3,205 1,196 2,009 Springboro City + 1,321 Reg. Rep. Dem. Plur. 2004 10,447 5,985 2,189 3,796 2000 8,139 4,230 1,755 2,475 Change +28.4% 1,755 434 1,321 Clear Creek Township + 1,104 Reg. Rep. Dem. Plur. 2004 8,145 4,997 1,574 3,423 2000 6,177 3,503 1,184 2,319 Change +31.9% 1,494 390 1,104 Deerfield Township + 1,365 Reg. Rep. Dem. Plur. 2004 21,220 11,319 4,529 6,790 2000 16,359 8,527 3,102 5,425 Change +29.7% 2,792 1,427 1,365 Hamilton Township + 1,924 Reg. Rep. Dem. Plur. 2004 10,681 6,226 2,097 4,129 2000 5,967 3,399 1,194 2,205 Change +79.0% 2,827 903 1,924 In Lebanon City, Springboro City, Clear Creek Township, and Hamilton Township, Bush’s point spread over his opponent actually increased. If the Warren County results were hacked, as many people suspect, then these would be the places to look: Bush Kerry Bush Gore Lebanon City 72.04 27.55 68.83 28.44 Mason City 73.86 25.88 72.99 24.88 Springboro City 73.04 26.71 69.39 28.79 Clear Creek Township 75.77 23.87 72.62 24.54 Deerfield Township 71.19 28.49 71.77 26.11 Hamilton Township 74.55 25.11 72.17 25.35 There was a dramatic increase in voter registration since the primary election of March 2, 2004, as described in my previous paper, “Voter Turnout in Warren County.” These cities and townships were no exceptions: VOTER REGISTRATION: 11/07/00 03/02/04 11/02/04 Lebanon City 8,795 10,026 11,641 Mason City 13,899 16,728 19,221 Springboro City 8,139 9,220 10,447 Clear Creek Township 6,177 7,121 8,145 Deerfield Township 16,359 18,144 21,220 Hamilton Township 5,967 8,426 10,681 Thus, in the four years since the 2000 presidential election, these six cities and townships added 22,019 new voters to the rolls: 10,329 in the first 40 months, and 11,690 in the last 8 months. This is entirely possible in a fast-growing county. Only a careful examination and comparison of the voter rolls and registration forms can determine its legitimacy. CLERMONT COUNTY The best way to illustrate what happened in Clermont County is to begin by presenting two tables, showing very different voting patterns in two townships. Tate Township Registered Voters Turnout 2000 2004 Change 2000 2004 Bush Kerry Bush Gore A 502 517 + 2.9% 68.7 72.9 270 105 226 109 B 401 411 + 2.5% 51.1 58.9 167 71 131 69 C 451 480 + 6.4% 69.4 76.3 263 93 226 76 D 458 512 +11.8% 68.3 74.2 272 102 217 87 E 309 313 + 1.3% 70.2 77.3 169 68 131 82 F 353 370 + 4.8% 61.8 72.7 211 56 146 68 G 394 459 +16.5% 73.4 78.9 271 88 221 61 H 707 772 + 9.2% 65.6 76.0 415 167 320 129 I 403 423 + 5.0% 62.3 72.1 201 99 172 71 3978 4257 + 7.0% 65.7 73.5 2239 849 1790 752 Every precinct in Tate Township reported a modest increase in voter registration, quite in line with the 10.2% increase county wide. It was the voter turnout, up by 7.8%, which translated into a big win for Bush. Excluding third-party candidates, there were 546 more votes cast for president in 2004 than in 2000. Bush got 449 of them, and Kerry got 97. Batavia Township Registered Voters Turnout 2000 2004 Change 2000 2004 Bush Kerry Bush Gore A 987 1263 +28.0% 59.3 66.3 594 232 412 161 B 560 1038 +85.4% 61.3 63.7 422 233 217 122 C 901 993 +10.2% 54.3 66.9 466 190 321 157 D 828 1061 +28.1% 66.2 70.8 557 189 385 157 E 559 937 +67.6% 53.1 70.4 452 202 170 112 F 444 503 +13.3% 56.8 72.6 247 115 141 103 G 702 930 +32.5% 64.0 72.3 451 214 298 136 H 468 583 +24.6% 71.6 79.6 337 121 233 92 I 567 287 -49.4% 44.6 81.2 180 52 167 79 J 679 938 +38.1% 69.5 76.9 516 195 325 134 K 1006 1269 +26.1% 60.7 68.4 645 215 431 166 L 675 592 -12.3% 59.1 63.0 222 149 232 164 8376 10394 +24.1% 59.9 69.9 5089 2107 3332 1583 In Batavia Township the voter registration rates are unbelievable. The increase is said to be 24.1% for the entire township, compared to 9.1% elsewhere in the county. The increases range as high as 67.6% in Precinct E, where 378 new voters were registered. It appears that nearly all of them voted. Turnout is said to have increased by 17.3%. Excluding third-party candidates, there were 372 more votes cast for president in 2004 than in 2000 in Precinct E alone. Bush got 282 of them, and Kerry got 90. On the other hand, decreases in voter registration rates range as high as 49.4% in Precinct I, where 280 voters were lost from the rolls. Nearly all the 313 people who failed to vote in 2000 either died or moved away. And yet, miraculously, excluding third-party candidates, only 14 fewer votes were cast for president in 2004 than in 2000. Bush managed to gain 13 votes in Precinct I, while the Democrats lost 27, ostensibly because voter turnout increased by 36.6%. There are 23 such precincts in Clermont County, where turnout was up, but Kerry got fewer votes than Gore. I do not believe these numbers. They call into question both the voter registration data and the turnout data for all of Clermont County, and the validity of the vote count itself. These three counties between them, Butler, Warren, and Clermont, provided nearly all of George W. Bush’s lead on election night. They also provided, by far, his three largest majorities, and the three largest increases in Bush’s margin of victory among any of the 72 counties that he won. The election results in Butler, Warren, and Clermont counties should be challenged, for they call into question the results for the entire State of Ohio. Email this article to a friend |
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