Departments
Uncounted votes in Hamilton County
by Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.
December 24, 2004
I give my heartfelt thanks to Coleen Christensen for producing the spreadsheets and to Roman Sasik for producing the tables of data that made it possible for me to write this report in a timely manner.
Three days ago I produced a report entitled “Uncounted Votes in Montgomery County.” These are ballots cast but not counted because they were regarded as “undervotes” and “overvotes,” or “blank” and “void,” as they are known in New York State. The true number of such votes can be easily determined by subtracting votes counted from total ballots cast.
I was shocked to learn of 47 precincts in Montgomery County where the percentage of uncounted ballots is 4.0% or more, and that every single one of those precincts was won by John Kerry, nearly all of them by overwhelming margins, 7 to 1 in the aggregate.
I resolved to apply the same analytical technique to other Ohio counties, beginning with Hamilton County.
Shortly after the election I obtained from the website of the Ohio Secretary of State the data I needed to make a statewide compilation on a county by county basis of the uncounted votes, exclusive of provisional ballots. These data have since been taken down from said website. I present them here.
Hamilton County
Registered Voters 573,612
Ballots Cast 418,001
Votes Counted 408,238
Votes Uncounted 9,763
Provisional Ballots 14,386
George W. Bush 215,639
John F. Kerry 190,956
Other candidates 1,643
Thus, according to the Ohio Secretary of State’s own data, the countywide percentage of uncounted votes, exclusive of provisional ballots, was 2.34%.
The Hamilton County Board of Elections has provided its unofficial precinct canvass records dated November 2, 2004. These do not include the counting of provisional ballots. From these records I derived the following table, presenting separate data for the vote totals, counted and uncounted, for Cincinnati, the suburbs, regular ballots, and absentee ballots:
Hamilton County
Breakdown Ballots Cast Uncounted Bush Kerry
CITY -376- 142,867 4515 3.16% 43,636 94,052
REGULAR 375,828 8743 2.33% 192,813 172,794
ABSENTEE 42,173 1020 2.42% 22,826 18,162
SUBURBS -637- 232,961 4228 1.81% 149,177 78,742
TOTAL -1013- 418,001 9763 2.34% 215,639 190,956
There are more uncounted votes in the 376 precincts of Cincinnati, which Kerry won with 67.98% of the vote to 31.54% for Bush, than in the 637 precincts of the suburbs, which Bush won with 65.22% of the vote to 34.43% for Kerry. And the percentage of uncounted votes in Cincinnati, 3.16% citywide, is much higher than the percentage of 1.81% elsewhere in the county.
I had Roman Sasik prepare a table of precincts sorted according to their percentage of uncounted ballots. Here are the results for Cincinnati:
PRECINCTS WITH 4.0% OR MORE UNCOUNTED BALLOTS
Precinct Ballots Cast Uncounted Bush Kerry
CINCINNATI 17-A 168 32 19.05% 4 130
CINCINNATI 24-E 283 40 14.13% 49 193
CINCINNATI 26-D 302 39 12.91% 31 232
CINCINNATI 13-E 400 50 12.50% 18 329
CINCINNATI 24-J 408 49 12.01% 19 339
CINCINNATI 21-D 277 33 11.91% 62 182
CINCINNATI 22-C 341 39 11.44% 11 291
CINCINNATI 10-C 224 25 11.16% 27 171
CINCINNATI 8-B 384 42 10.94% 19 323
CINCINNATI 7-F 425 41 9.65% 22 362
CINCINNATI 3-D 437 41 9.38% 26 369
CINCINNATI 23-V 414 38 9.18% 54 320
CINCINNATI 9-C 416 38 9.13% 18 360
CINCINNATI 9-H 367 33 8.99% 21 312
CINCINNATI 24-O 307 27 8.79% 11 269
CINCINNATI 26-X 450 39 8.67% 57 354
CINCINNATI 2-W 336 29 8.63% 56 250
CINCINNATI 3-I 408 35 8.58% 22 350
CINCINNATI 20-K 182 15 8.24% 37 130
CINCINNATI 13-D 504 41 8.13% 20 442
CINCINNATI 7-B 494 40 8.10% 43 411
CINCINNATI 7-P 287 23 8.01% 13 251
CINCINNATI 4-H 352 28 7.95% 152 172
CINCINNATI 17-F 343 26 7.58% 9 308
CINCINNATI 25-L 486 36 7.41% 214 232
CINCINNATI 2-C 338 25 7.40% 21 289
CINCINNATI 21-I 315 23 7.30% 40 249
CINCINNATI 25-B 353 25 7.08% 134 193
CINCINNATI 23-G 427 30 7.03% 80 316
CINCINNATI 26-N 386 27 6.99% 102 256
CINCINNATI 7-K 433 30 6.93% 33 368
CINCINNATI 26-J 361 25 6.93% 92 243
CINCINNATI 15-P 394 27 6.85% 23 343
CINCINNATI 7-A 523 35 6.69% 35 452
CINCINNATI 10-D 314 21 6.69% 25 267
CINCINNATI 25-Q 318 21 6.60% 122 175
CINCINNATI 10-E 244 16 6.56% 20 207
CINCINNATI 18-C 285 18 6.32% 8 259
CINCINNATI 14-D 400 25 6.25% 38 336
CINCINNATI 18-B 309 19 6.15% 15 274
CINCINNATI 2-H 518 31 5.98% 139 345
CINCINNATI 11-F 219 13 5.94% 45 158
CINCINNATI 3-E 456 27 5.92% 16 411
CINCINNATI 23-B 305 18 5.90% 62 222
CINCINNATI 9-E 358 21 5.87% 29 307
CINCINNATI 26-O 413 24 5.81% 10 376
CINCINNATI 6-C 327 19 5.81% 26 282
CINCINNATI 21-E 327 19 5.81% 16 290
CINCINNATI 14-N 401 23 5.74% 84 294
CINCINNATI 12-B 322 18 5.59% 79 224
CINCINNATI 9-F 433 24 5.54% 15 394
CINCINNATI 12-G 228 12 5.26% 35 181
CINCINNATI 5-D 326 17 5.21% 51 255
CINCINNATI 15-D 353 18 5.10% 16 319
CINCINNATI 6-B 315 16 5.08% 127 170
CINCINNATI 24-F 395 20 5.06% 75 299
CINCINNATI 23-L 387 19 4.91% 178 187
CINCINNATI 5-L 245 12 4.90% 96 137
CINCINNATI 2-B 311 15 4.82% 39 253
CINCINNATI 22-B 334 16 4.79% 94 221
CINCINNATI 13-G 351 16 4.56% 29 305
CINCINNATI 6-F 417 19 4.56% 83 313
CINCINNATI 8-A 330 15 4.55% 14 301
CINCINNATI 16-A 552 25 4.53% 95 429
CINCINNATI 15-F 490 22 4.49% 140 324
CINCINNATI 22-D 471 21 4.46% 17 433
CINCINNATI 5-E 406 18 4.43% 103 281
CINCINNATI 23-Z 429 19 4.43% 262 147
CINCINNATI 8-F 362 16 4.42% 18 326
CINCINNATI 17-D 272 12 4.41% 18 240
CINCINNATI 26-E 391 17 4.35% 66 308
CINCINNATI 7-M 441 19 4.31% 19 401
CINCINNATI 6-D 396 17 4.29% 33 345
CINCINNATI 20-A 329 14 4.26% 108 206
CINCINNATI 7-D 496 21 4.23% 46 429
CINCINNATI 2-A 403 17 4.22% 117 267
CINCINNATI 7-G 429 18 4.20% 46 362
CINCINNATI 10-A 316 13 4.11% 150 153
CINCINNATI 18-D 122 5 4.10% 3 114
CINCINNATI 12-C 343 14 4.08% 41 284
CINCINNATI 18-A 320 13 4.06% 9 295
CINCINNATI 9-A 271 11 4.06% 8 250
CINCINNATI 21-K 272 11 4.04% 19 241
CINCINNATI 13-O 498 20 4.02% 101 374
CINCINNATI 14-K 249 10 4.02% 57 181
CINCINNATI 13-F 274 11 4.01% 16 247
The partisan distribution of uncounted ballots in Hamilton County is even more extreme than in Montgomery County. In Cincinnati there are 22 precincts with more than 8% of the ballots uncounted. These account for 789 uncounted votes, 17.48% of the total in the entire city, and 9.02% of the total in the entire county. These uncounted votes amount to 10.10% of the total ballots cast in these 22 precincts. John Kerry won them all overwhelmingly, by a margin of 10 to 1 in the aggregate.
There are 40 precincts with more than 6% of the ballots uncounted, 56 precincts with more than 5% of the ballots uncounted, and 86 precincts with more than 4% of the ballots uncounted. These 86 precincts account for 2042 uncounted votes, 45.22% of the total in the entire city, and 23.35% of the total in the entire county. These uncounted votes amount to 6.58% of the total ballots cast in these 86 precincts. John Kerry won 85 of these precincts, and his margin in all 86 precincts was 5 to 1 in the aggregate.
Even outside of the City of Cincinnati the amount and distribution of uncounted votes is disturbing:
PRECINCTS WITH 6.0% OR MORE UNCOUNTED BALLOTS
Precinct Ballots Cast Uncounted Bush Kerry
LINCOLN HGTS C 239 25 10.46% 16 196
WOODLAWN C 456 46 10.09% 31 378
LINCOLN HGTS D 363 31 8.54% 13 318
SPRINGFIELD LL 360 29 8.06% 53 278
NORWOOD 4-D 362 27 7.46% 172 159
BLUE ASH 2-C 377 28 7.43% 120 229
FOREST PARK O 401 28 6.98% 110 263
MIAMI TWP H 247 17 6.88% 174 55
SPRINGFIELD GG 314 21 6.69% 29 264
COLERAIN HH 444 28 6.31% 222 190
SPRINGFIELD M 508 32 6.30% 216 257
ELMWOOD B 286 18 6.29% 150 117
NO COLL HILL 1-B 449 28 6.24% 258 163
COLUMBIA D 412 25 6.07% 35 352
Outside of Cincinnati there are 4 precincts with more than 8% of the ballots uncounted. John Kerry won them all overwhelmingly, by a margin of 10 to 1 in the aggregate. There are 10 other precincts with more than 6% of the ballots uncounted. John Kerry won 5 of the 10, and the high rate of uncounted votes cannot be coincidental. Woodlawn C was Kerry’s best precinct of 4 in the town. Blue Ash 2-C was the only one of 14 precincts Kerry won in the town. Columbia-D was Kerry’s best of 13 precincts in the town.
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