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Departments Election Issues Stealing votes in Columbus The Free Press on Election Day posted a disturbing story, later confirmed by the Columbus Dispatch. The Free Press reported that Franklin County Board of Elections Director Matt Damschroder deliberately withheld voting machines from predominantly black Democratic wards in Columbus, and dispersed some of the machines to affluent suburbs in Franklin County.
Damschroder is the former Executive Director of the Franklin County Republican Party. Sources close to the Board of Elections told the Free Press that Damschroder and Ohio’s Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell met with President George W. Bush in Columbus on Election Day. The idea was to discourage turnout in Democratic wards by forcing voters to wait in long lines at the polling places. Such a strategy would be far more effective than encouraging turnout in Republican wards. Elections are all about margins. There are 74 wards in Columbus. George W. Bush won 12 wards, with a margin of 7.35%. John F. Kerry won 62 wards, with a margin of 37.62%. Affecting Kerry’s turnout would greatly reduce his margin of victory in Columbus, giving the Republicans a much better chance of overtaking Kerry given a strong enough showing in suburban and small town Republican strongholds.
COLUMBUS POPULAR VOTE (EXCLUDING PROVISIONAL BALLOTS)
Location Kerry Bush Others Kerry Wards 141520 68.40% 63693 30.78% 1704 0.82% Bush Wards 36228 46.01% 42015 53.36% 496 0.63% Grand Total 177748 62.22% 105708 37.01% 2200 0.77%
In order to investigate this matter, I obtained from the Franklin County Board of Elections all the data I needed in order to calculate, ward by ward, and precinct by precinct: (1) The ratio of registered voters per voting machine. (2) Percent turnout, calculated as total ballots cast divided by the number of registered voters. (3) Percent for Kerry, calculated as votes cast for Kerry divided by votes cast for president. (4) Margin of victory or defeat for Kerry, calculated as the difference between the vote totals for Kerry and Bush.
The first thing I noticed was the distribution of turnout. There is a statistically significant difference between the turnout in the Bush precincts and the turnout in the Kerry precincts.
DISTRIBUTION OF TURNOUT
Percent Bush Kerry Turnout Precincts Precincts
> 60 68 57 55-60 32 55 50-55 17 73 45-50 7 78 40-45 1 49 < 40 0 34 Total 125 346
Median Bush Precinct: 60.56% Median Kerry Precinct: 50.78%
Best Bush Precinct: Ward 57, Precinct F Bush 64.97% Kerry 34.82% Margin 30.05%
Best Kerry Precinct: Ward 17, Precinct D Kerry 97.66% Bush 1.98% Margin 95.68%
Note: Ward 22, Precinct H was a tie.
As the above table shows, turnout was over 60% in 68 of 125 Bush precincts (54.4%), and over 50% in 117 of 125 Bush precincts (93.6%). By contrast, turnout was over 60% in only 57 of 346 Kerry precincts (16.5%), over 50% in only 185 of 346 Kerry precincts (53.5%), and under 40% in 34 of 346 Kerry precincts (9.8%).
Was the uneven distribution of turnout due to a lack of enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate? Or was it due to an uneven distribution of voting machines? To answer this question, I arranged the data, ward by ward, according to the ratio of registered voters per voting machine.
DISTRIBUTION OF VOTING MACHINES, TOP OF THE LIST
Ward Voters/ Percent Kerry Kerry Machine Turnout Percent Margin
WARD 19 261.2 67.99 63.33 + 1491 WARD 65 265.1 60.10 44.33 - 496 WARD 30 266.4 56.25 52.50 + 147 WARD 72 267.4 62.33 39.42 - 774 WARD 22 274.1 60.21 54.89 + 465 WARD 28 276.2 58.48 82.04 + 2371 WARD 63 278.7 56.10 47.37 - 242 WARD 48 278.9 52.84 82.37 + 1909 WARD 46 279.8 58.22 55.19 + 981 WARD 70 285.5 61.17 50.95 + 79 WARD 06 292.9 47.44 91.29 + 2494 WARD 21 293.9 57.92 58.45 + 719 WARD 34 295.8 55.85 65.05 + 1051 WARD 69 296.4 57.97 41.98 - 1030 WARD 60 296.7 55.97 44.27 - 478 WARD 66 300.0 53.01 52.32 + 203 WARD 05 302.9 46.24 94.34 + 1854 WARD 62 303.2 57.96 55.68 + 760 WARD 45 303.8 57.89 55.47 + 1208 WARD 47 304.8 52.85 73.83 + 1534 WARD 20 306.2 61.96 71.46 + 1077 WARD 53 307.2 53.66 55.01 + 499 WARD 15 308.4 51.88 60.71 + 291 WARD 27 308.4 53.06 68.63 + 1283 WARD 56 308.6 55.71 82.75 + 4065 WARD 52 308.7 53.68 68.52 + 1610 WARD 10 311.5 57.18 47.58 - 560 WARD 67 313.1 54.17 48.03 - 221 WARD 64 313.6 52.73 47.88 - 153 WARD 57 314.2 56.81 48.74 - 155 WARD 50 316.4 59.54 77.14 + 1447 WARD 58 317.6 55.04 49.82 + 41 WARD 07 318.1 44.24 94.21 + 2332 WARD 36 318.7 53.31 50.57 + 91 WARD 43 319.9 56.27 58.53 + 475 WARD 73 320.6 58.23 44.18 - 1032 WARD 71 322.2 53.93 47.58 - 307 WARD 74 322.8 55.02 46.19 - 339
As the above table shows, the 38 wards in which the number of registered voters per voting machine was the lowest enjoyed high voter turnout. All but 3 of the 38 wards at the top of Damschroder’s list had a turnout above 50%, and 6 of the 38 wards at the top of the list had a turnout above 60%. All 12 of the Bush wards are included in the top of the list. The 26 Kerry wards in the top of the list are not his biggest strongholds. In only 13 of the 26 wards did Kerry exceed his city wide share of 62.22% of the vote, which makes 13 of 38 wards altogether. However, these Kerry wards did enjoy a high voter turnout. In 23 of the 26 wards, Kerry’s turnout exceeded that of his median precinct, 50.78%. Turnout exceeded 55% in 14 Kerry wards, and exceeded 60% in 3 Kerry wards. Clearly, Kerry enjoyed a higher turnout where the polling places had enough voting machines. What about the bottom of the list?
DISTRIBUTION OF VOTING MACHINES, BOTTOM OF THE LIST
Ward Voters/ Percent Kerry Kerry Machine Turnout Percent Margin
WARD 38 324.4 48.15 67.32 + 546 WARD 35 327.5 50.90 92.36 + 2104 WARD 17 330.6 48.67 93.12 + 2465 WARD 42 330.6 46.34 70.77 + 966 WARD 14 333.4 49.37 81.31 + 2068 WARD 13 338.6 44.91 93.36 + 1702 WARD 44 340.7 48.87 72.98 + 3212 WARD 18 342.4 55.15 76.84 + 2043 WARD 51 343.6 46.93 88.59 + 1857 WARD 61 345.6 49.28 62.35 + 594 WARD 68 347.3 44.61 75.43 + 950 WARD 04 348.6 37.69 91.75 + 1643 WARD 32 348.7 55.11 58.82 + 456 WARD 26 349.3 41.34 89.69 + 1692 WARD 33 350.1 52.64 69.19 + 1803 WARD 54 350.6 52.77 59.82 + 668 WARD 49 353.9 50.76 54.45 + 370 WARD 25 354.6 52.90 91.57 + 3872 WARD 24 356.9 48.99 68.47 + 991 WARD 37 356.9 44.37 58.99 + 441 WARD 02 357.1 52.56 69.94 + 1517 WARD 11 365.4 49.14 58.80 + 531 WARD 31 367.0 45.05 69.86 + 1000 WARD 29 369.2 45.65 61.09 + 417 WARD 16 369.5 44.61 75.98 + 1732 WARD 09 373.4 35.06 68.71 + 497 WARD 39 374.4 46.29 70.06 + 711 WARD 55 377.3 43.55 88.64 + 1644 WARD 59 381.2 48.32 54.16 + 288 WARD 08 381.8 41.52 68.99 + 974 WARD 40 381.8 42.41 78.15 + 1205 WARD 03 396.9 44.69 84.66 + 1728 WARD 41 400.5 40.22 65.95 + 1110 WARD 23 400.9 47.57 73.47 + 1252 WARD 01 407.1 44.37 68.50 + 744 WARD 12 423.9 41.81 86.47 + 1557
As the above table shows, the 36 wards in which the number of registered voters per voting machine was the highest suffered low voter turnout. All but 8 of the 36 wards at the bottom of Damschroder’s list had a turnout below 50%, and 2 of the 36 wards at the bottom of the list had a turnout below 40%. All 36 of the wards at the bottom of the list were won by Kerry, and they include most of his strongholds. In 29 of the 36 wards, Kerry exceeded his city wide share of 62.22% of the vote. However, these wards suffered a low voter turnout. In only 7 of the 36 wards did Kerry’s turnout exceed that of his median precinct, 50.78%. Turnout was below 45% in 14 of the 36 wards, and was below 40% in 2 Kerry wards. Clearly, Kerry suffered a lower turnout where the polling places did not have enough voting machines.
A similar pattern is evident when examining the data for individual precincts. I have arranged the data in the same manner as above, precinct by precinct, according to the ratio of registered voters per voting machine. The 61 precincts with the lowest ratio of registered voters per voting machine are shown below:
PRECINCTS WITH THE MOST VOTING MACHINES
Ward & Voters/ Percent Kerry Kerry Precinct Machine Turnout Percent Margin
60-G 166.0 65.06 40.99 - 56 22-H 176.3 63.52 49.23 0 63-I 180.0 53.52 52.10 + 14 28-G 185.7 57.99 76.34 + 170 69-G 190.0 53.16 48.33 - 10 63-E 192.3 62.05 43.75 - 41 52-H 192.7 52.08 70.76 + 133 70-C 199.5 63.73 50.47 + 12 67-K 212.7 64.58 42.16 - 61 65-G 213.8 61.57 40.15 - 153
46-F 215.7 65.84 39.71 - 85 30-C 216.7 66.00 50.95 + 10 65-D 219.3 65.65 44.08 - 50 33-H 221.7 52.48 78.03 + 195 72-D 228.0 67.21 38.30 - 136 46-I 228.2 64.68 54.96 + 76 69-D 228.6 64.48 47.81 - 29 28-E 229.0 69.98 88.23 + 488 21-E 231.0 68.57 58.93 + 142 19-D 232.0 66.55 58.87 + 142
64-D 235.3 58.50 47.33 - 20 46-A 235.7 61.53 48.85 - 10 71-A 236.3 67.14 42.19 - 69 10-E 238.6 67.73 36.63 - 211 56-C 239.3 63.51 74.67 + 224 57-D 240.0 67.33 43.50 - 102 19-G 241.0 68.36 58.66 + 117 21-F 242.0 66.63 57.98 + 105 57-H 242.3 63.82 50.22 + 6 15-B 242.5 62.47 54.62 + 68
34-E 242.7 63.32 59.04 + 90 60-F 242.8 64.37 37.18 - 155 10-H 244.0 64.07 49.46 - 2 66-F 244.3 66.85 46.42 - 32 57-K 245.0 68.42 46.31 - 75 18-D 246.7 67.97 71.49 + 217 72-A 247.0 64.68 40.13 - 122 18-E 247.3 62.89 75.84 + 308 65-H 247.3 50.27 54.86 + 40 48-D 247.5 56.67 83.70 + 380
14-D 249.7 56.88 79.48 + 252 19-C 250.0 72.00 59.55 + 139 70-E 250.0 51.11 65.83 + 167 46-B 250.8 58.13 51.94 + 27 60-D 251.5 63.62 45.02 - 61 45-I 251.6 52.31 56.31 + 85 64-H 252.8 54.70 52.28 + 26 48-E 253.0 58.50 62.33 + 78 73-E 253.1 60.78 49.67 - 1 06-E 254.0 50.49 94.43 + 453
70-D 255.3 66.41 50.30 + 11 66-D 255.6 55.79 48.52 - 18 69-C 255.8 54.50 36.10 - 186 42-C 256.0 61.98 57.14 + 74 46-L 256.0 66.54 57.84 + 162 10-P 256.5 65.30 35.33 - 190 47-F 257.7 50.84 76.96 + 211 45-H 259.8 60.59 44.03 - 183 19-B 261.0 70.11 60.80 + 164 52-B 261.5 62.43 62.21 + 159 69-I 261.5 68.36 37.80 - 169
As the table above shows, of the 61 precincts with the most voting machines per registered voter, 26 were won by Bush, 34 were won by Kerry, and one was a tie. Again, Bush enjoys disproportional favoritism. Bush won 125 precincts and 26 of them (20.80%) are represented here. Kerry won 346 precincts, only 34 (0.98%) are represented here, and they are not his major strongholds. In only 12 of the 34 Kerry precincts did he exceed his city wide share of 62.22% of the vote, which makes 12 of 61 precincts altogether. Most of these precincts enjoyed high voter turnout. In all 61 precincts, turnout was above 50%. In 42 of the 61 precincts, turnout was above that of Bush’s median precinct, 60.56%. Of these 42 precincts, 22 were won by Bush, and 20 were won by Kerry. This proves once and for all that the Kerry precincts could have enjoyed a voter turnout similar to that of the Bush precincts, if only they had been supplied with enough voting machines.
And what of the precincts with not enough voting machines? The 60 precincts with the highest ratio of registered voters per voting machine are shown below:
PRECINCTS WITH THE FEWEST VOTING MACHINES
Ward & Voters/ Percent Kerry Kerry Precinct Machine Turnout Percent Margin
12-A 551.7 34.50 84.96 + 407 01-B 540.0 34.57 68.41 + 211 25-B 507.7 41.56 91.33 + 522 23-B 501.0 41.38 79.13 + 363 41-C 490.0 38.91 60.53 + 127 60-E 481.0 40.47 51.05 + 15 11-A 476.7 35.24 74.80 + 252 18-A 475.0 48.77 80.46 + 430 59-D 464.3 45.51 59.46 + 123 03-D 462.3 46.21 79.15 + 374
03-A 461.0 37.09 92.37 + 442 54-C 459.7 40.54 63.82 + 159 40-A 458.0 40.90 77.10 + 312 10-U 455.0 52.00 53.15 + 85 12-B 453.3 38.60 92.31 + 445 61-C 449.7 43.66 70.31 + 234 49-E 447.3 38.75 52.70 + 30 55-B 446.0 42.38 91.80 + 473 23-A 444.0 45.12 81.76 + 381 09-B 439.8 28.82 68.66 + 195
02-A 439.7 38.06 80.32 + 308 57-A 437.3 42.91 65.41 + 176 31-C 437.0 39.97 65.07 + 160 16-E 436.7 41.98 68.50 + 205 32-C 436.3 43.54 60.99 + 128 74-F 436.3 45.23 51.86 + 25 54-A 435.7 46.82 67.77 + 218 11-D 435.0 47.28 55.67 + 81 69-H 433.8 54.76 40.93 - 167 53-G 432.7 45.30 68.49 + 219
10-C 431.0 39.68 81.80 + 321 69-J 428.8 47.00 47.44 - 38 67-A 427.3 54.37 41.99 - 108 16-C 427.0 40.28 77.13 + 475 29-A 426.0 36.85 70.81 + 196 04-C 423.3 32.44 89.46 + 332 41-D 423.0 42.47 64.75 + 165 36-G 421.0 37.29 66.52 + 156 08-D 419.7 51.55 69.47 + 253 42-A 417.7 40.30 81.64 + 321
57-B 417.0 48.28 57.87 + 97 73-B 415.0 41.69 46.41 - 29 26-A 413.0 41.81 89.88 + 403 02-B 412.3 53.27 69.54 + 263 52-E 412.0 46.60 87.39 + 431 08-A 411.6 30.95 79.75 + 381 73-J 411.6 63.56 42.62 - 189 44-A 409.7 48.90 86.36 + 434 57-G 409.0 43.60 50.00 + 7 33-C 407.0 47.42 64.11 + 170
46-J 405.7 47.99 66.38 + 197 44-B 405.3 45.97 81.37 + 348 44-G 405.0 37.22 79.02 + 348 71-B 404.3 42.04 49.80 + 1 49-D 403.7 45.33 51.58 + 22 24-B 402.7 45.45 65.50 + 174 39-A 401.0 46.05 67.51 + 398 55-D 400.7 42.43 87.38 + 382 10-A 400.3 39.72 55.91 + 60 45-J 398.8 57.30 58.77 + 165
As the table above shows, of the 60 precincts with the fewest voting machines per registered voter, only 5 were won by Bush, and 55 were won by Kerry. Again, Bush enjoys disproportional favoritism. Bush won 125 precincts, and only 5 of them (4.00%) are represented here. Kerry won 346 precincts, 55 (15.9%) are represented here, and they include his major strongholds. In 41 of the 55 Kerry precincts, he exceeded his city wide share of 62.22% of the vote. None of these precincts enjoyed high voter turnout. In only 7 of the precincts was turnout was above 50%. Of these, 4 were won by Kerry, and 3 were won by Bush. Turnout was below 45% in 34 precincts, below 40% in 16 precincts, below 35% in 5 precincts, and below 30% in one precinct.
It is important to understand what these numbers mean. The polls in Ohio were open from 6:30 A.M. to 7:30 P.M. That is 13 hours, or 780 minutes. If there are 400 registered voters per voting machine, and turnout is 60%, each voter has less than 3.5 minutes to vote, and that is assuming a steady stream of voters, with no rushes at certain hours. It also assumes no challenges to voters at the polls. If there are 550 registered voters per voting machine, and the turnout is 60%, each voter has 2.4 minutes.
All of this amounts to theft of votes. It has been shown above that the Kerry precincts enjoyed a voter turnout similar to that of the Bush precincts when supplied with enough voting machines.
It is an easy matter to calculate, assuming the same vote percentages for each ward, how many more votes John Kerry would have gotten with a 60% voter turnout. This is not an unreasonable number. The median Bush precinct enjoyed a turnout of 60.56%. The turnout was 66.31% for Cincinnati, city wide.
I am aware that because the Franklin County Board of Elections did not purge its voter rolls, there are more registered voters than adults listed as living in Franklin County by the United States Census. There are many “registered” voters who are dead or have moved away. One might expect, therefore, a lower percentage of voter turnout in Cleveland than in Cincinnati. However, 60% of the voting age population is a reasonable figure. Presidential elections have surpassed this figure four times in my lifetime: 1952 (61.6%), 1960 (62.8%), 1964 (61.9%), and 1968 (60.9%). In 1992 the figure was 55.9%, and the 2004 election was probably more hotly contested.
PROJECTED COLUMBUS RETURNS WITH 60% TURNOUT
Ward or Percent Kerry With 60% Gain or Precinct Turnout Margin Turnout Loss
WARD 01 44.37 + 744 + 1006 + 262 WARD 02 52.56 + 1517 + 1732 + 215 WARD 03 44.69 + 1728 + 2320 + 592 WARD 04 37.69 + 1643 + 2616 + 973 WARD 05 46.24 + 1854 + 2406 + 552 WARD 06 47.44 + 2494 + 3154 + 660 WARD 07 44.24 + 2332 + 3163 + 831 WARD 08 41.52 + 974 + 1408 + 434 WARD 09 35.06 + 497 + 851 + 354 WARD 10 57.18 - 560 - 588 - 28 WARD 11 49.14 + 531 + 648 + 117 WARD 12 41.81 + 1557 + 2234 + 677 WARD 13 44.91 + 1702 + 2274 + 572 WARD 14 49.37 + 2068 + 2513 + 445 WARD 15 51.88 + 291 + 337 + 46 WARD 16 44.61 + 1732 + 2330 + 598 WARD 17 48.67 + 2465 + 3039 + 574 WARD 18 55.15 + 2043 + 2223 + 180 WARD 19 67.99 + 1491 WARD 20 61.96 + 1077 WARD 21 57.92 + 719 + 745 + 26 WARD 22 60.21 + 465 WARD 23 47.57 + 1252 + 1579 + 327 WARD 24 48.99 + 991 + 1214 + 223 WARD 25 52.90 + 3872 + 4392 + 520 WARD 26 41.34 + 1692 + 2456 + 764 WARD 27 53.06 + 1283 + 1451 + 168 WARD 28 58.48 + 2371 + 2433 + 62 WARD 29 45.65 + 417 + 548 + 131 WARD 30 56.25 + 147 + 157 + 10 WARD 31 45.05 + 1000 + 1332 + 332 WARD 32 55.11 + 456 + 496 + 40 WARD 33 52.64 + 1803 + 2055 + 252 WARD 34 55.85 + 1051 + 1129 + 78 WARD 35 50.90 + 2104 + 2480 + 376 WARD 36 53.31 + 91 + 102 + 11 WARD 37 44.37 + 441 + 596 + 155 WARD 38 48.15 + 546 + 680 + 134 WARD 39 46.29 + 711 + 922 + 211 WARD 40 42.41 + 1205 + 1705 + 500 WARD 41 40.22 + 1110 + 1656 + 546 WARD 42 46.34 + 966 + 1251 + 285 WARD 43 56.27 + 475 + 506 + 31 WARD 44 48.87 + 3212 + 3944 + 732 WARD 45 57.89 + 1208 + 1252 + 44 WARD 46 58.22 + 981 + 1011 + 30 WARD 47 52.85 + 1534 + 1742 + 208 WARD 48 52.84 + 1909 + 2168 + 259 WARD 49 50.76 + 370 + 437 + 67 WARD 50 59.54 + 1447 + 1458 + 11 WARD 51 46.93 + 1857 + 2374 + 517 WARD 52 53.68 + 1610 + 1800 + 190 WARD 53 53.66 + 499 + 558 + 59 WARD 54 52.77 + 668 + 760 + 92 WARD 55 43.55 + 1644 + 2265 + 621 WARD 56 55.71 + 4065 + 4378 + 313 WARD 57 56.81 - 155 - 164 - 9 WARD 58 55.04 + 41 + 45 + 4 WARD 59 48.32 + 288 + 358 + 70 WARD 60 55.97 - 478 - 512 - 34 WARD 61 49.28 + 594 + 723 + 129 WARD 62 57.96 + 760 + 787 + 27 WARD 63 56.10 - 242 - 259 - 17 WARD 64 52.73 - 153 - 174 - 21 WARD 65 60.10 - 496 WARD 66 53.01 + 203 + 230 + 27 WARD 67 54.17 - 221 - 245 - 24 WARD 68 44.61 + 950 + 1278 + 328 WARD 69 57.97 - 1030 - 1066 - 36 WARD 70 61.17 + 79 WARD 71 53.93 - 307 - 342 - 35 WARD 72 62.33 - 774 WARD 73 58.23 - 1032 - 1063 - 31 WARD 74 55.02 - 339 - 370 - 31
GRAND TOTAL +16788
Thus I conclude that the withholding of voting machines from predominantly Democratic wards in the City of Columbus cost John Kerry upwards of 17,000 votes. A more detailed calculation could be done on a precinct by precinct basis, but that is not necessary here. The purpose is to illustrate the magnitude of the conspiracy.
Matt Damschroder did not act alone. There are 74 wards and 472 precincts in Columbus, Ohio. It is not possible for one person to have delivered all the voting machines, and it is unlikely that nobody else was involved in planning where to deliver them. Anyone who associated with Mr. Damschroder on or shortly before Election Day should be investigated for possible complicity.
Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D. Canton, New York |
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