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Departments Election Issues Certifiable election results All the following tables show the official results on the first line, the unofficial results on the second line, and the difference on the third line. The number of newly counted votes as a percentage of the total is posted beneath the name of the county. State wide, this percentage was 2.62%. COMPARISON OF RESULTS: STATE WIDE Bush % Bush Kerry % Kerry Note that I have adjusted these numbers to account for Gahanna, Ward 1, Precinct B, in Franklin County, where 638 ballots were cast, but Bush was awarded 4,258 votes. Kerry received 260 votes. There were 87 reported write-in votes, compared to zero in the rest of the ward, 13 in the rest of Gahanna. These have now disappeared from the count. Bush’s official total is now 365, and I have reduced his unofficial total by 3893, in order to make valid comparisons. For less than 3% of the votes counted to offset by 0.30% the margin between the two candidates is significant. State wide, Kerry’s percentage of the newly counted votes was 54.46%, much greater than his percentage in the officially certified statewide results. The newly counted votes, whether absentee or provisional, were all paper ballots. The sample size is statistically significant. If the newly counted ballots do not represent a random sample of the electorate, it can only be because, on the one hand, absentee ballots tend to break in favor of Republicans, and on the other hand, provisional ballots disproportionately favor Democrats because of Republican challengers at the polling places. There are 88 counties in Ohio. The official count increased Bush’s percentage of the vote in only 16 counties, all of them small, the largest being Belmont County: County Bush % Bush Kerry % KerryBelmont 15,589 46.79% 17,574 52.74% 1.91% 15,275 46.74% 17,256 52.80% 314 49.37% 318 50.00% One of these 16 counties, Harrison County, is suspect because the vote totals actually decreased after Election Day, by an equal amount for both candidates: County Bush % Bush Kerry % KerryHarrison 4,274 52.71% 3,780 46.61% -1.09% 4,318 52.61% 3,824 46.59% -44 44.44% -44 44.44% Bush’s largest percentage gain was in Perry County, where the sample of newly counted votes is small, and the election results are suspect, as detailed in a letter dated December 2, 2004 from Congressman John Conyers and others to Ohio Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell. Irregularities included voter turnout of 124.4% in Precinct Reading S and 124.0% in Precinct West Lexington G, 3100 voters listed as having registered on the exact same day, and substantial numbers of voters with no signatures on file. County Bush % Bush Kerry % KerryPerry 7,855 51.72% 7,257 47.78% 0.90% 7,767 51.62% 7,205 47.88% 88 62.41% 52 36.88% Another county where Bush’s percentage increased was Van Wert County, where the official turnout in Precinct Van Wert 4C was zero. According to a letter I received on December 5, 2004 from the Chairman and Director of the Van Wert County Board of Elections, this was done under the direction of J. Kenneth Blackwell’s office. The reason for these zero results “is due to the fact that precinct officials borrowed a voting booth from Precinct Van Wert D and the rotations, as required by law, for these opposed candidates in the two precincts are not the same.” Thus, in the same election, Blackwell has certified voter turnout percentages at the precinct level ranging from a high of 124.4% to a low of zero. County Bush % Bush Kerry % KerryVan Wert 10,678 72.02% 4,094 27.61% 1.77% 10,484 71.99% 4,026 27.64% 194 74.05% 68 25.95% Other than Perry County, Bush’s largest percentage gain was in Ottawa County, where his share of the newly counted votes was 4.20% higher than the results reported on election night: County Bush % Bush Kerry % KerryOttawa 12,075 51.92% 11,114 47.79% 1.96% 11,820 51.84% 10,915 47.87% 255 56.04% 199 43.74% On the other hand, the official count increased Kerry’s percentage of the vote in 66 counties (in 6 counties the percentages were unchanged). Kerry’s share of the newly counted votes was more than 4% higher than his unofficial total in 36 counties, including the ten biggest counties in the state: COMPARISON OF RESULTS: TEN BIGGEST COUNTIESCounty Bush % Bush Kerry % Kerry These results are profoundly disturbing. The newly counted votes, all with a certifiable paper trail, consistently show a much higher percentage for John Kerry than the results tabulated electronically on election night. The difference is 8.93% in Hamilton, 8.08% in Lucas, 6.81% in Lorain, 5.83% in Butler, 5.67% in Montgomery, 5.52% in Stark, 5.21% in Cuyahoga, 4.99% in Franklin, 4.90% in Mahoning, and 4.24% in Summit. These numbers indicate a systematic underreporting of the Kerry vote on election night. Either the discrepancy must be entirely attributable to absentee ballots and provisional ballots coming disproportionately from Democratic precincts, or else the electronic vote counts were not correct. Either way, the discrepancy is so pervasive that it cannot be easily dismissed. These are the ten biggest counties in the State of Ohio. Together they accounted for 61.30% of Kerry’s state wide vote. The same pattern, a discrepancy of 4% or more between the election night results and the newly counted votes, shows up in 22 smaller counties, listed in order according to the size of the discrepancy: Clark, Marion, Muskingum, Morrow, Richland, Allen, Wood, Morgan, Jackson, Scioto, Holmes, Hancock, Defiance, Clinton, Portage, Shelby, Meigs, Champaign, Licking, Noble, Greene, and Wayne. There are some other interesting patterns that emerge when comparing the official and unofficial results. In two counties the new votes counted as a percentage of the total is extraordinarily high: County Bush % Bush Kerry % KerryAthens 10,847 36.10% 18,997 63.31% 8.59% 9,912 36.09% 17,369 63.24% 935 36.30% 1,628 63.20% Guernsey 9,961 55.84% 7,768 43.54% 8.81% 9,095 55.93% 7,072 43.49% 866 54.84% 696 44.08% Athens County, where 2504 provisional ballots were issued, is the home of the Main Campus of Ohio University, which suggests relentless challenging of the right of college students to vote. In Guernsey County only 558 provisional ballots were issued, and I do not know why so many votes were counted late. In Lake County, the number of newly counted votes split evenly, exactly, 1578 votes for Bush, and 1578 votes for Kerry. This is plausible, given that the overall vote in Lake County was very close. County Bush % Bush Kerry % KerryLake 62,193 51.05% 59,049 48.47% 2.60% 60,615 51.09% 57,471 48.44% 1,578 49.76% 1,578 49.76% I did ask to see the unofficial results for Lake County in order to analyze the provisional ballot count by comparing the precinct totals. I was advised by the Board of Elections that the precinct totals are unchanged from the unofficial results. Because of electronic voting, the provisional ballots and the absentee ballots are counted on an at-large county wide basis and lumped together in one line in the official election results. Finally we come to Sandusky County. There are 39,408 registered voters. According to the unofficial results there were 32,433 ballots cast, a turnout of 82.30%, the highest percentage of any county in the state (Delaware County being the next highest at 79.16%). In addition there were 760 provisional ballots issued, which could have brought the turnout to 84.23%. There were 31,846 votes counted for president, which left 587 regular ballots uncounted. Now, according to the official results, there were only 28,955 votes counted for president, a net loss of 2,891 votes. More votes than this must have been disqualified, because some of the 760 provisional ballots must have been valid. This amounts to a loss of at least 9.08% and as much as 11.20% of the vote. County Bush % Bush Kerry % KerrySandusky 16,198 55.94% 12,653 43.70% -9.08% 17,824 55.97% 13,909 43.68% -1,626 56.19% -1,256 43.40% The reason for this was reported by Jay Cohen of the Associated Press. Barb Tuckerman, Director of the Sandusky County Board of Elections, stated that about 2600 ballots from nine precincts were counted twice when they were mistakenly placed alongside a pile of uncounted ballots. The room where the ballots were being fed into optical-scan machines on election night was so crowded that ballots were being placed on the floor. “It was totally hectic,” she said. She further stated that no problems were found related to the machines that tally the paper ballots. This explanation can only be scrutinized by comparing the unofficial results to the official results. Once we have both sets of numbers, we intend to do so. |
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MISOGYNY Foreign Policy Forecast: If Bush Wins | If Kerry Wins Hope for the homestretch FactCheck.org says Cheney got it wrong Do the Hokey Pokey Hope for the homestretch Addressing Republican issues with John Kerry Gallup Polls- Conditioning for Vote Rigging? Too Many Cameras and Not Enough Truth: John Kerry Dodges the Press Nader 2000 Leaders United To Defeat Bush Shut up and color: the politics of bullying Kerry, Nader and the Greens need to kill the circular firing squad Don’t Believe the Hype; Terrorist Warnings Just Another Way Bush Will Steal Election President of Greater Stark County AFL-CIO speaks out on Bush’s visit in Canton, Ohio I'll Follow Kucinich to Kerry, Sorry Ralph Badnarik Doubles in Recent National Poll ‘A green world is possible’ planned in New York City during the Republican National Convention An open letter to progressives: vote Kerry and Cobb A street fighting man? How Kucinich can win Scary, Scary John Kerry With all deliberate stupidity: US self-isolation makes Iraq a virtual non-issue in the elections so far To support or not to support; the Nader question Halliburton, VP Cheney's Former Company Faces Second Criminal Probe In Four Years The Lone Ranger of Righteousness The Wrong Side of History High Noon in America The Truth is Out: Kucinich is the choice of progressives Dean and Kucinich Bush Should Be Facing 'A Long, Hard Slog' On The Campaign Trail, But Dems Too Busy Fighting With Each Other Read Election Issues Articles by Year: |
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