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Departments Election Issues Arkansas in 2004: Did Bush Really Win? This report will be based on several categories of data, both historical and statistical in nature, which strongly suggest that John Kerry was making a showing in the American south in the 2004 election. 1. Past election patterns: A common myth the media have often deliberately or otherwise purveyed, has been that there is a "monolithic" South, in which all Southern states fall into a set pattern, with similar percentages of victory for Republicans versus non-Southerner Democratics. This pattern can be seriously challenged when one examines individual vote tallies in individual southern states, on a year-by-year basis. The most telling examples will be found in those election years in which the Republican supposedly "swept" the entire South, or virtually the entire South. 1972: Richard Nixon is supposedly re-elected as the first Republican President to carry the South. His vote patterns are described in the news media as representing a "realignment" of the entire South with conservative voting patterns. But serious problems begin to emerge when one examines certain Southern states, as to how votes are actually falling in various categories. For example, George Wallace's Alabama probably would not have been in Nixon's column, even had Wallace not been anywhere on the Democratic ticket, under normal circumstances. However, Wallace, at that time, was hospitalized in the wake of a shooting incident in a Florida mall while he'd been campaigning for the Democratic Presidential nomination. Then-Democratic Presidential candidate George McGovern's taking Sen. Thomas Eagleton, D-MO, from his VP spot and replacing him with Sargent Shriver of Maryland had an impact on those two states, one of which is regarded as a "border" state (MO), while the other (MD) is regarded loosely as a "southern" state. While much was made of a Nixon "over two to one sweep" of votes throughout the South, it can be seen from the vote tallies in both Missouri and Maryland that Nixon's margins were far lower than 2-1 in those two states. In addition, disaffection with the Republicans in the South is reflected in the fact that a Virginia Elector cast one vote for the Libertarian Presidential ticket of John Hospers and Theodora Nathan. This prevented Nixon from claiming all the South's Electoral votes. 1980: The Reagan alleged "sweep" of the South (except for Carter's Georgia and the state of Maryland), can be shot down a bit when one examines how close the vote tallies were across the South: look, for example, at how narrowly Reagan was carrying the state of Arkansas that year--by about 5,000 votes. Similarly, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Florida were hair-close Reagan margins which were probably re-countable. This, even though Reagan's running mate, GHW Bush, was allegedly from Texas (he was actually born in Massachussetts and maintained his main residences in Kennebunkport, Maine). 1984: The year in which it was asserted in the Reagan/Bush-controlled or owned media, that the "teflon President" had absolutely carried every single Southern state, one finds one glaring exception: Georgia. Carter's home state was close enough as to be recountable in the vote tallies in a majority of the county-level tallies. The result could have been at least one Georgia Electoral vote going to the Mondale-Ferraro ticket. In addition, post-election news stories revealed that, in Maryland, Reagan's Iran-Contra operatives had placed the Maryknoll nuns under surveillance. The nuns were active in the Mondale/Ferraro campaign because of their active opposition to Reagan's Iran/Contra activities. ("FBI Kept Eye On Reagan Critics" World Almanac for 1989, 49.) fn 1. Additional data discovered by John Loftus and Mark Aarons and cited in their book The Secret War Against the Jews: How Western Espionage Betrayed the Jewish People (New York: St. Martin's, 1994), showed that then-Vice-President George H.W. Bush, with "unprecedented powers," gained while Reagan was hospitalized in 1981, as described by Webster Tarpley and Anton Chaitkin (The Unauthorized Biography of George Bush, New York: American Intelligence Review, 1991), had placed "virtually the entire American Jewish community under surveillance" using Britain's MI-6, with the CIA, in turn, wiretapping Britain's Jews-- the two then swapping data with Bush likely able to use the surveillance-gained information against Jewish Mondale/Ferraro activists in, among other places, the state of Florida. 1988: Though it is widely alleged in the media that Democratic Presidential candidate Michael Dukakis "failed to carry the South" even though having Texas Senator Lloyd Bentsen as his running-mate, Maryland, a Southern state, would have easily fallen into Dukakis's column on a recount. In addition, in examining Texas returns, one sees that Bentsen's vote tallies in his race to return to the U.S. Senate, when compared to his tallies in the Vice-Presidential race, suggest that if even a portion of his Senate votes were counted as votes for his role as a Senator as a Vice-President, Texas was in the Democratic column. With this as a backdrop, I hope we have dispelled at least part of the myth of the "Republican South" so pre-dominant in the news media in recent years. This allows us to examine Southern states with a more objective, less prejudiced eye. We will set aside Florida, as that his being investigated by other parties, in order to focus on Arkansas. 2. Pre-election, Tracking and Exit Polls in Arkansas: A series of seventeen pre-election and tracking polls conducted by seven different polling organizations, reveals the following startling data about the 2004 Presidential election: In Florida, Arkansas, Louisiana, Virginia, and North Carolina--all Southern states--Bush usually failed to be above 50% in the polls. In two of those Southern states, Florida and Arkansas, Kerry sometimes led Bush in the polls. In Arkansas, in 10 of those 17 polls, Bush was below 50%. In one poll, (5/2/04 Rasmussen), Bush and Kerry are tied. In another, (6/30/04 Rasmussen), Kerry leads Bush. In no poll does Bush's lead surpass the Undecided and Margin of Error factors. In 8 of the 17 Arkansas pre-election polls in which Bush attains a lead over Kerry, Bush is still below 50%. In 7 of those 8 polls, Bush is below even 49%. On October 17, 2004 (SurveyUSA) and again on November 1, 2004 (also SurveyUSA), Bush's lead over Kerry is 51% to 46%, but both the 4% Margin of Error and the 1-2% Undecided columns put the race at dead even or with a possible Kerry lead. On October 20, 2004, a poll conducted by the University of Arkansas, an in-state polling organization, showed Bush at 47%, Kerry at 40%, but with a huge 10% Undecided column and a 3% Margin of Error. This poll, too, strongly suggests a Kerry lead, since Undecideds historically break 55-45 for Incumbents. With Kerry getting 4 1/2% of the Undecided vote, and most of the 3% Margin of Error, Kerry is at a 1/2% lead over Bush. This is backed up by data from another in-state polling organization, the Arkansas State University system poll of May 4, 2004. In that poll, Bush's 51% to 43% lead over Kerry is subject to a huge 6% Undecided column and a Margin of Error of 5%. With the Margin of Error even halfway accurately reflected, Bush would be at 48.5%, while Kerry would be at 45.5%, with another 6% of the vote possible for Kerry--putting him at 51.5%. Again, if 55% of Undecideds went to Bush as the Incumbent, this would leave 45% of Undecideds to add to Kerry's 45.5%. This would put the race, as early as May, 2004, exactly where it was early on election day--a dead head, 48% to 48% race, as reflected by updated SurveyUSA pre-vote statistics presented to CBS TV affiliate KTHV in Little Rock and announced at 3 pm and again at 4:30 pm by election coverage anchor Ann Jansen: a 48% to 48% dead heat. 3. Bill Clinton This last poll cited, occurred while Bill Clinton was still actively campaigning in the state for Kerry, something he hadn't done for Gore. Clinton has proven to be politically popular in precisely those areas of the state where Democrats in recent years have been weakest in terms of vote-getting potential: the western area. Against a Texas Republican candidate, western Arkansas became very competitive for Democrats. Clinton's home area is Hot Springs, in Garland County (a somewhat Libertarian-oriented county), and Hope, in Yell County. Both of these counties are in the western part of the state, and are strongly inclined to respond to Clinton as a politician, and to any endorsements he might make. In those final few hours, it is highly-possible that exit pollsters could have missed a somewhat dramatic shift had they not focussed on the Hope and Hot Springs (Garland County) areas. There, and in Pulaski County, where the Clinton Presidential Library was about to open, some uptick in Democratic voters--and a switch of female poll interviewees from "undecided" or "unlikely to vote" to "Kerry and likely to vote"-- seems a definite factor in the narrowing of the polls in the state. 4. Vote Discrepancies: An analysis of Arkansas votes now available at the Arkansas Secretary of State's website, www.arelections.org, reveals that the Arkansas elections teams at the state and county levels were unable to complete vote tabulations by the official state deadlines. At least a part of this had to do with some significant vote discrepancies that were found in a state-wide race for the United States House of Representatives between incumbent Democrat Vic Snyder and his challenger, Republican Marvin Parks. As described in an article in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette on November 25, 2004, ("Pulaski County's tallies flawed, so state to 'amend' Nov. 2 vote result") written by Jake Bleed of the Democrat-Gazette's staff, the Secretary of State had determined a sizable error and discrepancy of 57,557 votes in the Snyder-Parks race between the tallies recorded at the State website, the paper tallies recorded at the Pulaski County elections offices of Susan Inman, and the Pulaski County Elections website of Pulaski County Clerk Carolyn Staley. These discrepancies were the result of human errors as the paper tallies at the county levels were transferred to the county website. In just two counties, Pulaski and Saline, both of which are part of the Little Rock metropolitan area, that sizable a discrepancy had occurred. And this, the State said, did not include the other 75 counties of the state, which had yet to be tabulated, evaluated and compared between county and state Site totals. Another race may reveal an additional discrepancy that might be the tip of the iceberg of a much larger "vote migration" phenomenon in the Presidential race: in the state-level House race between Democrat Dawn Creekmore and her GOP opponent Penny Kemp. There, Creekmore's votes were essentially given to Kemp, while Kemp's were given to Creekmore, in Pulaski County due to an alleged "clerical error." But, according to Pulaski County Elections Supervisor Susan Inman, such a huge margin due to clerical error alone seems unimaginable, even when involving the relatively-new Provisional ballots. "But they should only be different in maybe one or two or three," Inman said (as quoted in the Democrat-Gazette article). "Small numbers." The latter remark went right over the heads of the GOP-oriented Democrat-Gazette, but struck me amidships: this revealed the possibility that the same "vote migration" phenomenon was at work in Arkansas as had been at work in Ohio in the race of Ellen Connelly for a Judgeship there, (votes for Kerry seemed to have "migrated" into her column). Between the 57,557 votes "floating" in the Snyder race and the vote reversal in the Creekmore-Kemp race, an unusual phenomenon seemed at work in the state. 5. Undervotes: An examination of the State's website on December 3, 2004, as the state finally tabulated final returns for the various counties, reveals that a total of 7909 un-examined Undervotes are present in the state of Arkansas, and that Kerry has picked up an additional 871 votes around the state, Bush only 176 more. Bush's lead over Kerry is about 102,000 votes. This means that, for Kerry to carry the state, over 51,000 votes would have to be found in Bush's column that should be in Kerry's column. This seems a large number until we recall the statewide Snyder race, and the localized Creekmore race. If a "vote migration" phenomenon occurred in the Kerry-Bush race such as had occurred in the Snyder-Parks and Creekmore-Kemp races, as many as 57,500 Kerry votes could have "migrated" to Bush. If such a migration were reversed on a corrected evaluation, it would be more than enough to turn the state around. What could cause all of this? This brings us to a final point: 6. The election day power failure in Little Rock From November 1, 2004 until November 3, 2004, both traffic patterns and electrical power were disrupted in an area of of Little Rock, in Pulaski County, known as "West Little Rock." (Pulaski, the state's most populous county and home of Little Rock, the state capital, is Democratic-leaning.) The area where the power failure occurred is a largely commercially-zoned area, near the relatively heavily-trafficked intersections of Markham Street and Shackleford Road. At least two election precincts and voting locations were affected for several hours on election day. In that area, the vote, though largely white, is somewhat more influenced by Jewish voters than any other area of the county or state. An interesting series of questions is raised by the power failure and traffic disruption on election day at this location: 1. How many voters who were registered in the precincts affected by the traffic tie-up were unable to get to the voting booths on time? 2. How many votes may have been involved in this area of the voting booths that were temporarily disabled or dis-located by the power-shut-down? 3. Perhaps most interesting in light of events in Ohio regarding TRIAD computer technicians and their alleged partisan and possibly illegal activities going into the recounts there, how were the computers brought back online and back into operation in the affected precincts in Pulaski and surrounding counties? The questions come to mind for the Arkansas Secretary of State, Charlie Daniels, the Pulaski County Clerk, Carolyn Staley, and the Pulaski County Elections Supervisor, Susan Inman. To Daniels:: What did your office have to do, to get the computers in the voting booths and affected areas of Pulaski County back into operation after the power failure in the Markham and Shackleford area of Little Rock on election day? To Staley: What company operates and maintains the elections equipment and computers in the West Little Rock area of Pulaski County? Do you have any further information since the Democrat-Gazette article of November 25, 2004 as to how the sizable vote discrepancies occurred in the Snyder-Parks race, or how the vote-reversals occurred in the Creekmore-Kemp race? To Inman: How many of the mis-tabulated votes in Pulaski County were found after the computers in the West Little Rock area were brought back online, and how many were found before that? To any or all: Were computer technicians employed to re-boot and re-activate the computers after the power failure? If so, what companies were the technicians affiliated with, and do you have any records as to their names, schedules and activities that day? Do you have any contact information for the elections offices personnel in the West Little Rock polling places that were affected that day, and/or any contact information as to the computer technicians employed to ensure proper re-activation of the affected computers? Do you have any data as to how wide an area of computer data statewide would have been affected by such a power failure? Clear and detailed answers to those questions, and subsequent follow-up interviews with any elections clerks or computer technicians involved, might reveal some interesting things about Arkansas in 2004. Max Standridge, Little Rock, Arkansas. January 19, 2004. fn1: "The Center for Constitutional Rights, a civil rights, group, revealed January 27, (1988) that the Federal Bureau of Investigation had kept under surveillance a number of organizations that had been critical of Reagan Administration policies in Central America. Documentation had been obtained through the Freedom of Information Act. Although the principle target was the Committee in Solidarity with the People of El Salvador (CISPES), more than 100 other groups were investigated, including the Roman Catholic Maryknoll Sisters, the United Auto Workers (UAW), the United Steel Workers, and the National Education Association (NEA). FBI Director William Sessions said, February 2, 1988, that the investigations had been an outgrowth of the belief that CISPES was aiding a 'terrorist organization'. Senator David Boren (D, OK), whose Intelligence Commmitee interviewed Sessions behind closed doors February 2, 1988, said he wanted to know if the FBI had interfered with the activities of legitimate politically active groups." For further reference, see Arkansas Gazette July 15, 1989, "Committee Rebukes FBI For Political Group Probe": "The Committee said in an 150-page report that the FBI's 1983-85 probe of the Committee in Solidarity with the People of El Salvador (CISPES) and other groups was based on 'allegations that should not have been considered credible.' "'The CISPES files contain information about domestic political activity that the FBI should never have gathered.' said Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman David Boren, D. OK., and Vice-Chairman Sen. William Cohen, R-Maine. "That information must be removed from FBI records so it cannot be used to damage the reputations of innocent persons," they said. "A lawsuit seeking removal of the files is pending in federal court in the District of Columbia." Max Standridge has a Bachelor of Science in Individualized Business, Legal and Research Studies and a Bachelor of Arts in History at Charter Oak State College in New Britain, Connecticut, and a Master of Arts in Technical and Expository Writing at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock. He is the author of three books, including The Great Old Record of the Grand Old Party (copyright 1991 Max Standridge) and Tim, George Bush and Me: The Undercurrents in All Our Lives (copyright 1998, 2000 Max Standridge) and maintains the George Bush-Undercurrents Website at http://home.att.net/~m.standridge and http://www.aristotle.net/~mstandridge. He is a resident of Little Rock, Arkansas. |
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