The Free Press -- Independent News Media

Sat May 17 2008

Departments
Election Issues

Poll shock
by Robert C. Koehler, Tribune Media Services
November 24, 2005

One of the most wildly inaccurate pre-election polls in memory, which was off by over 40 points on some predictions, may prove to be deadly accurate as an indicator of the problems we face as a nation with our voting process - and democracy itself.

But you won't learn this by reading the Columbus Dispatch, the newspaper that conducted the poll just prior to Ohio's Nov. 8 election. The paper's public affairs editor conceded to me that the poll results the Dispatch wrote about, wrongly indicating massive public support for several proposed constitutional amendments, were, in essence, the journalistic equivalent of the explosion of the space shuttle Challenger.

"Much like the American space program, both our triumphs and our shortcomings are out there for all to see," Darrel Rowland said in an e-mail. Unlike NASA, however, which did manage to find that faulty O-ring, the newspaper's powers that be don't seem particularly interested in learning how their big public flop occurred. "We'll certainly double-check the poll mechanics," he said, "but see no reason to discontinue a methodology that's proven accurate for decades."

And Rowland's right, as far as I can tell: The Columbus Dispatch's survey of voters, conducted by mail, has historically been a reliable poll; it has been cited for its precision in the scholarly journal Public Opinion Quarterly and is considered far more accurate than telephone surveys. There is no faulty O-ring, in other words; the methodology doesn't need changing.

And that's why there's a story here that must not be allowed to vanish.

The story is about how America votes, and evidence that pandemic chaos and perhaps even centrally orchestrated malfeasance are accompanying the spread of electronic voting machines to the nation's precincts. We know there's cause to worry about the state of our democracy because of the historical accuracy of the Columbus Dispatch voter poll.

Of the five proposed amendments on the ballot, only the first - a $2 billion state bond initiative to promote high-tech industry - was not related to the conduct of elections, and oddly enough its results were accurately forecast in the poll (predicted yes vote, 53 percent; final yes vote, 54 percent). Then it gets hairy.

Issue 2 would have made absentee voting easier in the state. It had lots of high-profile support, and the Dispatch poll predicted a cakewalk for it: 59 percent yes, 33 percent no, 9 percent undecided. The actual result: 36 percent yes, a whopping 63 percent no.

Then there was issue 3, which would have lowered the campaign-contribution limits that a lame-duck state legislature had raised a year ago. Prediction: 61 percent yes, 25 percent no, 14 percent undecided. Actual result: 33 percent yes, 66 percent no.

The results of issue 4, to control gerrymandering by establishing an independent board to draw congressional districts, were only slightly less dramatic. Prediction: 31 percent yes, 45 percent no, 25 percent undecided. Result: 30 percent yes, 69 percent no. And for issue 5, to establish an independent board instead of the secretary of state's office to oversee elections, a 41 percent predicted yes vote shrank to 29 percent, while the no vote ballooned from 43 to 70 percent.

Ka-boom goes the Challenger.

Here's the telling thing. The Dispatch, member in good standing of the mainstream media, has no interest in raising doubts about the integrity of the U.S. electoral system, and so hasn't looked in that direction for an explanation of what voting-rights activist Bob Fitrakis called a polling error of "Landon beats FDR" proportions.

Instead, the paper blames the notorious volatility of statewide referendum issues. Rowland hypothesized "a huge shift in the electorate in the last few days before the election, when the ads started peppering airwaves." Maybe, though Fitrakis maintains that the big pre-election ad blitz was conducted by the losing side.

Why, I wonder, in a state that made a national spectacle of itself with widespread irregularities and voter disenfranchisement a year ago, would there be so little interest in investigating whether the "voting chaos" reported by the Toledo Blade or the "night of surprises" reported by the Dayton Daily News could have produced tainted results?

"One problem discovered Tuesday: Some machines began registering votes for the wrong item when voters touched the screen correctly," wrote Jim Bebbington in the Daily News. "Those machines had lost their calibration during shipping or installation and had to be recalibrated."

But the spark won't jump in the media mind. You know: Hmm, we have widespread confusion in the voting process, a recent GAO report that cites many glaring insecurities in e-voting, and our own polls indicating big victories that turn into big defeats. Could it be ...? Nah! What are we thinking? This is the world's greatest democracy.

Relax.

- - -

Robert Koehler, an award-winning, Chicago-based journalist, is an editor at Tribune Media Services and nationally syndicated writer. You can respond to this column at bkoehler@tribune.com or visit his Web site at commonwonders.com. © 2005 Tribune Media Services, Inc.

Email this article to a friend

Don't forget to check out articles from 2007 and 2008

Election Issues

"An open letter to the Election Assistance Commission"
December 25, 2005
John Gideon, Executive Director of VotersUnite.Org and Information Manager for VoteTrustUSA.Org

"Diebold hack proven in county test!"
December 17, 2005
Glenn Yeagley

"Diebold Inc. in a tailspin after resignation of CEO and filing of a class action fraud lawsuit"
December 17, 2005
VelvetRevolution.us

"Orr thinks machines make voting simpler, more secure "
December 17, 2005
Mario Bartoletti

"Diebold "hack test" - Sec. State / Black Box Lawyer square off"
December 10, 2005
Black Box Voting

"With new legislation, Ohio Republicans plan holiday burial for American Democracy"
December 6, 2005
Bob Fitrakis & Harvey Wasserman

"Important daily voting news"
December 4, 2005
John Gideon

"Poll shock"
November 24, 2005
Robert C. Koehler, Tribune Media Services

"Ohio's Diebold Debacle: New machines call election results into question"
November 24, 2005
Bob Fitrakis & Harvey Wasserman

"Diebold attempts to evade election transparency laws"
November 20, 2005
Matt Zimmerman

"Supreme Court stabs another GOP knife into US democracy by upholding ex-felon vote ban"
November 16, 2005
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman

"Has American Democracy died an electronic death in Ohio 2005's referenda defeats?"
November 11, 2005
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman

"What John Kerry definitely said about 2004’s stolen election and why it's killing American democracy"
November 10, 2005
Bob Fitrakis & Harvey Wasserman

"Scrap the "secret" ballot - return to open voting"
November 5, 2005
Lynn Landes

"Clarification of NEDA's withdrawal of Ohio exit poll paper"
November 5, 2005
Kathy Dopp

"Clarification of NEDA's withdrawal of Ohio exit poll paper"
November 3, 2005
Kathy Dopp, National Election Data Archive

"Watergate-style money laundering indictments stoke Ohio's stolen election fires"
October 28, 2005
Bob Fitrakis & Harvey Wasserman

"Powerful Government Accountability Office report confirms key 2004 stolen election findings"
October 26, 2005
Bob Fitrakis & Harvey Wasserman

"Did you erase your own vote?"
October 25, 2005
Warren Stewart, Director of Legislative Issues and Policy, www.VoteTrustUSA.org

"Why can't the left face the Stolen Elections of 2004 & 2008?"
October 18, 2005
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman

"Carter/Baker Report can't face how the GOP stole America's 2004 election & is rigging 2008"
September 20, 2005
Bob Fitrakis & Harvey Wasserman

"Two Steps Forward, One Step Back"
September 20, 2005
Warren Stewart, Director of Legislative Issues and Policy, VoteTrustUSA

"FEMA Chief Brown Paid Millions in False Claims to Help Bush Win Fla. Votes"
September 19, 2005
Jason Leopold

"Ohio recount lawsuit set for trial; election workers indicted"
September 4, 2005
Blair Bobier

"Ohio Governor's ethics violations expose money trail to stolen 2004 election"
August 30, 2005
Bob Fitrakis & Harvey Wasserman

"Diebold's failure in California"
August 7, 2005
John Gideon, Information Manager, www.VotersUnite.Org and www.VoteTrustUSA.Org

"Did the GOP steal another Ohio Election?"
August 5, 2005
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman

"Conyers-Kaptur seek special counsel for Noe probe"
August 4, 2005
John Conyers, Jr. and Marcy Kaptur

"Dramatic new charges deepen link between Ohio's "Coingate," Voinovich mob connections, and the theft of the 2004 election"
July 29, 2005
Bob Fitrakis & Harvey Wasserman

"None dare call it stolen - Ohio, the election, and America's servile press"
July 24, 2005
Mark Crispin Miller, summarized by Mary Anne Saucier, Columbus, Ohio

"Civic Engagement and the Restoration of Community from a voter activist’s view"
July 19, 2005
Terri Zins

"My report from Hocking County, July 5, 2005: An update on Sherole Eaton's unfolding Story"
July 7, 2005
Victoria Parks, Ohio Backbone Campaign

"Handbook for Ohio Voter Activists, Version 2.0"
July 7, 2005
Various activists

"Direct testimony: Presented to Election Assessment Hearing"
July 4, 2005
Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.

"Log Cabin Republicans in Ohio"
July 4, 2005
Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.

"With a limp election theft report, Dems prove why they're unworthy"
June 28, 2005
Harvey Wasserman and Bob Fitrakis

"Voting problems and uncounted votes in Lucas County, Ohio"
June 28, 2005
Justine Smith

"The DNC 2004 Election Report: An indictment of incompetence"
June 25, 2005
Steven Rosenfeld and Bob Fitrakis

"Corporate control of the election process"
June 22, 2005
John Gideon

"Introduction: Did George W. Bush steal America's 2004 election?"
June 16, 2005
Bob Fitrakis, Steve Rosenfeld and Harvey Wasserman

"Voter Confidence Committee Calls For Rejection of CA Special Election"
June 16, 2005
Dave Berman

"Activists from 25 states lobby for paper ballots on June 9 and 10"
June 10, 2005
VoteTrustUSA.org

"Fear of riffraff"
June 10, 2005
Robert C. Koehler, Tribune Media Services

"Electoral Politics and the War: Lessons from 2004 and What the Anti-War Movement Should do in 2006"
June 8, 2005
Kevin Zeese

"Optical scan machines hacked in Florida"
June 2, 2005
Black Box Voting

"Does ES&S really want to sell the Automark machines?"
May 28, 2005
John Gideon

"Attack on election board whistleblower and leaked Blackwell threats re-fire Ohio's election theft scandal"
May 23, 2005
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman

"Franklin County, Ohio Election Procedures – April and May 2005"
May 6, 2005
Paddy Shaffer

"Carter Gets It – But Will His Electoral Commission?"
April 24, 2005
Kevin Zeese and Linda Schade

"Voter Perceptions and Political Deceptions: Federal, Ohio and Knox"
April 24, 2005
Mike Swinford

"Electoral reform groups call for James Baker's resignation from electoral reform commission"
April 17, 2005
Ilene Proctor

"National Conference on Election Reform Opens with Civil Rights Panel"
April 13, 2005
Abigail Thorton

"View from Another Planet"
April 13, 2005
Josh Mitteldorf

"Democrats! Paper “Trails” Aren’t Good Enough. Count The Damn Ballots!"
April 12, 2005
Lynn Landes

"Democrats, Paper ‘Trails’ Aren’t Good Enough; Count The Damn Ballots!"
April 1, 2005
Lynn Landes, Online Journal Contributing Writer

"Scientific Analysis Suggests Presidential Vote Counts May Have Been Altered"
March 30, 2005
US Vote Counts

"As Blackwell Says, Ohio’s in 2004 was a National Model"
March 24, 2005
Steve Rosenfeld, Bob Fitrakis, and Harvey Wasserman

"Understanding the difference between paper ballots and paper audit trails"
March 20, 2005
Gary Beckwith

"Save Our Democracy"
March 16, 2005
John Irwin

"Republicans maneuvering to get Voting Rights Act killed"
March 10, 2005
Rev. Jesse L. Jackson, Sr.

"Legal filing highlights Blackwell's hypocrisy in Ohio recount case"
March 7, 2005
Blair Bobier

"Selma 40 Years Later"
March 6, 2005
Rev. Jesse L. Jackson, Sr.

"Exit Poll Madness - Analyst Steve Freeman & Company Offer False Choice"
March 4, 2005
Lynn Landes

"Libertarians To Testify in Ohio House: Modernize Ohio's Election Laws"
March 3, 2005
Robert Butler

"The New Voting Rights Movement Begins Here Today"
March 2, 2005
Steven Rosenfeld

"Voting in America"
February 28, 2005
Bob Babson

"The Mighty Texas Strike Force"
February 28, 2005
Nick Mottern - Documentary News Service

"Blackwell presidential election sanctions briefs"
February 22, 2005
Various individuals

"Representative Conyers and others file amicus brief in Ohio Supreme Court"
February 17, 2005
Dena Graziano

"Congresswoman Tubbs Jones Outraged at Blackwell's Failure to Appear During House Administration Hearing"
February 12, 2005
Office of Rep. Tubbs Jones

"Ohio Attorney-General's attack on election protection attorneys draws mountain of documentation on state's stolen election, including new study on exit polls"
February 3, 2005
Steve Rosenfeld and Harvey Wasserman

"Prominent Statisticians Refute 'Explanation' of 2004 U.S. Exit Poll Discrepancies in New Edison/Mitofsky Report and Urge Investigation of U.S. Presidential Election Results"
January 31, 2005
Bruce O'Dell

"The last man to concede..."
January 29, 2005
Sheila Samples

"Report on Washington DC, January 6, 2005"
January 25, 2005
Avram Friedman

"Arkansas in 2004: Did Bush Really Win?"
January 24, 2005
Max Standridge

"New links"
January 23, 2005
Free Press staff

"Voting Problems and Uncounted Votes in Lucas County, Ohio"
January 23, 2005
Justine Smith

"Plan B: Parallel Elections & Signed Ballots"
January 20, 2005
Lynn Landes

"Open Letter to Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro from Representative John Conyers, Jr."
January 20, 2005
Representative John Conyers, Jr.

"Open Letter to Warren Mitofsky and Larry Rosin from Representative John Conyers, Jr."
January 20, 2005
Representative John Conyers, Jr.

"Ohio's GOP Attorney General launches revenge attack on Election Protection legal team"
January 19, 2005
Steve Rosenfeld and Harvey Wasserman

"What are they hiding in New Mexico?"
January 18, 2005
Warren Stewart, National Ballot Integrity Project

"In the Shadow of Dr. King, counting the vote remains a civil rights issue"
January 17, 2005
Bob Fitrakis, Steve Rosenfeld and Harvey Wasserman

"Did the “Liberal Media” Get the 2004 Election All Wrong? "
January 16, 2005
Gene C. Gerard

"'COUNT EVERY VOTE. EVERY VOTE COUNTS'"
January 16, 2005
Mary Anne Saucier

"Moss v. Bush moves on and movement continues"
January 13, 2005
Bob Fitrakis, Steve Rosenfeld and Harvey Wasserman

"Rally Continues Drive for Democracy"
January 9, 2005
Mark Huntress

"Estimated vote count in Ohio"
January 8, 2005
Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.

"January 6 Washington, D.C. rally report"
January 8, 2005
Nick Mottern

"Together, we moved three mountains"
January 8, 2005
Bob Fitrakis, Steve Rosenfeld and Harvey Wasserman

"What the election challenge means"
January 8, 2005
David Swanson, ILCA

"Progressive Democrats lead historic voting rights protest as Congress ratifies flawed 2004 Electoral College tally"
January 7, 2005
Bob Fitrakis, Steve Rosenfeld and Harvey Wasserman

"Arnebeck letter to Congress re Presidential Electoral Challenge"
January 6, 2005
Clifford O. Arnebeck, Jr.

"Senator Barbara Boxer, D-CA and Representative Stephanie Tubbs Jones, D-OH contested the election"
January 6, 2005
Free Press staff

"The "Crime of November 2": The human side of how Bush stole Ohio, and why Congress must investigate rather than ratify the Electoral College (Part Two of Two)"
January 5, 2005
Bob Fitrakis, Steve Rosenfeld and Harvey Wasserman

"Status Report of the House Judiciary Committee Democratic Staff"
January 5, 2005
U.S. Rep. John Conyers and staff

"Seven key reasons why the vote must be challenged at the electoral college"
January 3, 2005
Rev. Jesse Jackson, Rainbow/PUSH Coalition

"Ten preliminary reasons why the Bush vote does not compute, and why Congress must investigate rather than certify the Electoral College (Part One of Two)"
January 3, 2005
Bob Fitrakis, Steve Rosenfeld and Harvey Wasserman

"Verified election contest petitions and documents in Ohio Supreme Court "
January 2, 2005
The undersigned

"Distribution of voting machines by county in Ohio"
January 1, 2005
Andy Shifflette

"Did We Bounce An Election?"
January 1, 2005
Warren Stewart, votersunite.org

"Presidential election congressional hearing transcript"
January 1, 2005
Congresspeople Waters, Tubbs-Jones and Conyers and others

Selected articles from 2004

"Ohio's official non-recount ends amidst new evidence of fraud, theft and judicial contempt mirrored in New Mexico"
December 31, 2004

"Impossible Phantom Votes in New Mexico "
December 30, 2004

"The 2004 Presidential Election: Who Won The Popular Vote? An Examination of the Comparative Validity of Exit Poll and Vote Count Data"
December 29, 2004

"Ohio GOP election officials ducking notices of deposition as Kerry enters stolen vote fray"
December 28, 2004

"Another third rate burglary"
December 25, 2004

"Hacking the vote in Miami County"
December 25, 2004

"Update from the Ohio Frontlines"
December 24, 2004

"Lawsuit Before the Ohio Supreme Court"
December 24, 2004

"Kerry votes switched to Bush and ballots pre-punched for Bush"
December 24, 2004

"Uncounted votes in Cuyahoga County"
December 24, 2004

Related Journal articles:

"GAO report documents how easy it is to hack the vote"
November 15, 2005

"J30 Election Reform Coalition"
March 21, 2005

"The Un-mighty New Hampshire Jam Force"
March 21, 2005

"Petro sanctions democracy"
March 21, 2005

"Progressives helped concede election by conceding the moral high ground"
March 21, 2005

"We will not concede, or get over it, but we shall overcome"
January 23, 2005

"From Selma to Palm Beach to Columbus"
January 23, 2005

"Movement Heroes"
January 23, 2005

Read Articles by Year:
2007 2006 2005 2004
2003 2002 2001 2000