 |
Thu May 15 2008 | |||||||||
|
||||||||||
|
Departments Election Issues Response to Salon Magazine by Ron Baiman June 6, 2006 Dear Editor: In his June 2, 2006 Salon article “Was the 2004 Election Stolen? No”, Farhad Manjoo claims to have “thoroughly debunked” a June 15, 2006 article in Rolling Stone by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: “Did Bush Steal the 2004 Election”. As one of the (applied) statisticians cited in Kennedy’s article, I find that Manjoo’s “debunking” is either superficial spin that is easily refuted by adding more detail to Kennedy’s already very long piece, or simply factually erroneous. I will focus on the Manjoo points that relate to official return and exit poll data - my particular area of expertise. a) Making the point that voters sometimes do vote more often for a “down ticket” candidate is hardly a “rebuttal” of the 12 County Ellen Connally “anomaly”. First of all this was not a normal election but rather one of the hardest fought Presidential races in recent history in a key battleground state. Moreover, Connally was an under-funded and largely unknown African American, liberal, pro-choice, pro-gay rights, anti-death penalty, woman from Cleveland, and all of these counties are far from Cleveland. But even if we disregard this, anybody who wishes to check the numbers posted on the Secretary of State of Ohio’s official website will find that: a) nine out of only 14 counties (out of a total of 88 counties in Ohio) where Bush did abnormally well (over 43% better) relative to Moyer (the Republican Supreme Court nominee) just happen to be part of the same 12 counties where Kerry inexplicably did worse than Connally, b) this was not a result of voters in these counties switching from Moyer to Connally as Connally’s vote is worse than the Ohio county average in all but one of these counties and Moyer’s vote is better than the county average in all but one of the 12, c) the “lost Kerry” vote of 81,599 (relative to the average Kerry/Connally ratio) just happens to be just about equal to the “excess Bush” vote of 75,766 (relative to the average Bush/Moyer average in the 12 counties), and d) when one looks at the county by county pattern of “lost” Kerry votes to “excess” Bush votes, they match almost perfectly in their orders of magnitude – see the table below: As Kennedy notes such an approximately 80,000 vote shift from Kerry to Bush would have given Bush an additional 160,000 votes, more than enough to steal an election which Bush won by about 119,000 votes. In other words, just this one “anomaly” is enough to support a “stolen election” hypothesis and I challenge anyone to come up with a plausible explanation of this set a)-d) of remarkable statistical “coincidences” as reflecting anything other than a pattern of vote shifting! b) Manjoo’s claims that exit polls are not always accurate and that Mitfosky has an “explanation” for the large discrepancies (that he acknowledges were both highly significant statistically and the largest since 1988 in the January report) are both irrelevant when one considers the pattern of the exit poll discrepancy in Ohio – see graph below: These are “within-precinct discrepancies” or ((Kerry -Bush Official Vote) minus (Kerry – Bush Exit Poll shares)) for each of the 49 precincts for which exit polls were taken in Ohio based on data released by the Election Science Institute in a report in which Mitofsky is listed as an “assisting author”. (Note that there are not 49 bars as someprecincts have the same official Kerry vote share so that the bar is an average WPD.) Negative WPD reflects large Kerry exit poll “overstatements” relative to official vote counts. Note that almost all of the discrepancies are negative (against Kerry). In fact, as Kennedy reports, 20 of the 22 statistically significant discrepancies (large enough so that they could not plausibly be the result of random sampling error) are against Kerry. But even more striking is the pattern. On the right side in “high Kerry” precincts (above 57% official vote count – right of the red vertical line) there is a more or less random pattern of Bush (positive) and Kerry (negative) discrepancies, whereas on the left side (below 57% official Kerry vote – left of red line) almost all of the discrepancies (and all of the statistically significant discrepancies) go against Kerry. Moreover the precincts on the left are densely clustered whereas they are more dispersed on the right. This strikingly non-uniform pattern cannot be explained by either large but “unbiased” (not one-sided) exit poll discrepancies – the pattern on the right, or by a “reluctant Bush voter response to the exit Poll” (“rBr” - Mitofsky’s hypothetical explanation) as this would not even produce the pattern on the left, not to mention the un-biased discrepancy on the right. Those who have been following the 2004 exit poll debate know that rBr would produce a “U” shaped pattern of discrepancies that are larger in more competitive precincts and taper off to nearly zero in highly partisan precincts. There is no such pattern on the left of the graph. But the pattern displayed is perfectly consistent with “vote shifting” from Kerry to Bush that would “move” precincts by their official vote count to the left thus producing large negative Kerry WPD and much smaller Bush WPD, and a clustering of precincts on the left. In fact Manjoo’s (or Lindeman’s) calculations of overall exit poll response averages are simply mathematically wrong, as they don’t take into account the larger proportion of Kerry or Bush voters in the “high Kerry” or “high Bush” precincts respectively – for accurate exit poll response rate estimates, and an explanation of why Mitofsky’s data contradicts his own “rBr” hypothetical see NEDA reports. c) Manjoo’s claim that Mitofsky’s “rBr” hypothetical has not been decisively disproved is bunk. We applied an “optimal” (in the sense that this explained the WPD in more precincts than any other level of “rBr”) 59% to 50% excess Kerry to Bush voter completion rate to the Ohio data and found that 30% of Ohio’s exit polled precincts still had significant discrepancy, that these were still overwhelmingly against Kerry (11 out of 15) resulting in a 4.3% WPD against Kerry that was still more than double Bush’s 2.1% margin of victory in Ohio – see NEDA January report. d) Finally, Manjoo’s claim that WPD’s in Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico were “not outside the margin of error” depends on how one calculates the “margin of error”. In particular, based upon a very liberal 30% “cluster factor” increase in the margin of error proposed (after the election) by Mitfosky, (and a doubling of the publicly posted sample size recently revealed by Mitofsky – see Baiman June 5, 2006 AAPOR presentation Free Press 6/5/06 posting) there was only about a 1 in 1,929 chance for the approximately 6.8% (weighted statewide) WPD in Ohio. This is well over any reasonable margin of error (typically set at about 1 in 20). Moreover, even using this very liberal margin of error, the odds of the Kerry exit poll discrepancies being as large as they were in the three key battle ground states of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania simultaneously (and not just any random three states) is an impossible 1 in 133,000 (see Baiman Ohio Court Challenge affidavit). In short Manjoo’s “debunking” of the official vote and exit poll analysis parts of he Kennedy article is superficial and erroneous nonsense. Moreover, we have been through this with Manjoo and many of the people that he cites before. He and they either do not understand the relevant statistics and mathematics of rigorous exit poll analysis and should not be reporting or prognosticating on this topic, or they simply refuse to accept their errors of interpretation and understanding. Sincerely, Ron Baiman, Ph.D. Loyola University Chicago Vice President NEDA Email this article to a friend |
Don't forget to check out articles from 2007 and 2008
"Renowned computer security expert agrees to meet California county supervisor's '1000 to 1' challenge to 'manipulate' Sequoia voting machine!"
December 13, 2006
Brad Friedman
"100 phantom votes found in one precinct; DelCo board of elections hinders investigation"
December 12, 2006
Stephanie Frank Singer
"Think globally, protect the vote locally"
December 1, 2006
Paul Rogat Loeb
"Will they or won't they: last chance for Democrats"
November 17, 2006
David Swanson
"The vote protectors"
November 16, 2006
Robert C. Koehler
"Ohio's 2006 vote count now includes a higher percentage of uncounted ballots than in 2004, and a statistically impossible swing to the Republicans"
November 14, 2006
Bob Fitrakis, Harvey Wasserman and Ron Baiman
"The drama of empty numbers"
November 9, 2006
Robert C. Koehler
"A monumental victory for the election protection movement"
November 8, 2006
Bob Fitrakis & Harvey Wasserman
"Pick a number 2006"
November 7, 2006
Mike Ferner
"How they stole the mid-term election"
November 7, 2006
Greg Palast, The Guardian ( UK ), Comment
"STOP Blackwell, what's that sign: Everyone look what's going down"
November 7, 2006
Bob Fitrakis & Harvey Wasserman
"Parallel election midday report"
November 7, 2006
Rady Ananda
"Tuesday's outcome may depend on the power of the election protection movement"
November 5, 2006
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman
"The power of a social movement can beat the GOP double Chickenhawks"
November 2, 2006
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman
"Check out We Count for a great TownHall confrontation between Vicki Lovegren of Ohio Vigilance and Michael Vu, Supervisor of Cuyahoga County BOE"
November 1, 2006
Victoria Lovegren, Ph.D.
"Official states electronic voting system added votes never cast in 2004 Presidential election; audit log missing"
November 1, 2006
Peter Peckarsky, Ron Baiman, and Robert Fitrakis
"Repairing the U.S. system of voting: 50 concrete steps"
November 1, 2006
Harvey Wasserman, Bob Fitrakis and Steve Rosenfeld
"Will a shocking new GOP court victory and Karl Rove's attack on Ohio 2006 doom the Democrats nationwide?"
October 30, 2006
Bob Fitrakis & Harvey Wasserman
"Renoite sue Sequoia Voting Systems"
October 28, 2006
Patricia Axelrod
"Severe election problems seen in ten states"
October 27, 2006
Jason Leopold
"Direct material proof of massive election fraud in Ohio in the 2004 U.S. presidential election"
October 26, 2006
Ron Baiman
"A talk with Mark Crispin Miller about what voters can do to prevent another stolen election"
October 26, 2006
The Ostroy Report
"Will Ken Blackwell find the ways to steal Ohio 2006 as he did in 2004?"
October 25, 2006
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman
"Important voter activism"
October 22, 2006
Victoria Lovegren, Ph.D.
"A loaves & fishes/Holy Ghost victory for the GOP in November?"
October 17, 2006
Bob Fitrakis & Harvey Wasserman
"Why is the man who stole Ohio campaigning with a white supremacist?"
October 9, 2006
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman
"This cannot be"
September 28, 2006
Robert C. Koehler
"Court victory lets preserved Ohio 2004 ballots tell new tales of theft and fraud as indictments and convictions mount"
September 25, 2006
Bob Fitrakis & Harvey Wasserman
"Unfit for use in ANY democracy"
September 20, 2006
Rady Ananda
"An open letter to Gov. Robert Taft and Sec. of State J. Kenneth Blackwell"
September 8, 2006
Harvey Wasserman, et. al.
"Coshocton County complaint"
September 3, 2006
Tim Kettler
"Saving the ballot evidence from Ohio 2004"
September 2, 2006
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman
"San Diego suit’s second hearing: Judge to rule next Tuesday on constitutional and jurisdictional questions"
August 25, 2006
Rady Ananda
"New Zogby Poll: It’s Nearly Unanimous"
August 24, 2006
Michael Collins, “Scoop” Independent Media
"How the last presidential election awoke me from an unsound sleep"
July 22, 2006
Jeanne Norris Weinberg
"PFAW's Neas praises advance of Voting Rights Act, Calls on Bush Administration to start enforcing the law"
July 22, 2006
People For the American Way
"Why Democrats don't count: lessons from the un-Gore of Mexico"
July 16, 2006
Greg Palast
"Resolution of no confidence in current U.S. elections"
July 16, 2006
J30 Coalition
"An open letter from Ohio to the people of Mexico"
July 13, 2006
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman
"The stolen election of 2004"
July 11, 2006
Michael Parenti
"The Democrats must now say "We Do Not Concede" in the U.S. as it's being said in Mexico"
July 9, 2006
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman
"Project Vote, voting rights organizations, file to overturn restrictive voter registration rules "
July 7, 2006
Brian Mellor
"BBV: Unredacted Hursti Diebold reports, photos released"
July 4, 2006
Bev Harris
"Ignore that man behind the screen, Dorothy"
July 1, 2006
Greg Palast
"Bob Fitrakis for Governor -- he is now on the ballot"
July 1, 2006
Fitrakis campaign
"Alameda County supervisors embrace election fraud"
July 1, 2006
Allen C. Michaan
"San Diego’s run-off election aggregate results are plausible"
June 18, 2006
Ron Baiman
"A vote of no confidence: democracy left to languish in living rooms, garages"
June 15, 2006
Robert C. Koehler
"Kennedy's challenge: Salon, Mother Jones & the tortured dialogue"
June 15, 2006
Michael Collins and
"Warren County revisited"
June 12, 2006
Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.
"Something smells fishy in San Diego!"
June 11, 2006
Ron Baiman
"Response to Salon Magazine"
June 6, 2006
Ron Baiman
"Analysis of Connally spreadsheet and other documents"
June 5, 2006
Ron Baiman
"RFK and Rolling Stone nail Ohio's stolen 2004 election, but much more must be done"
June 3, 2006
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman
"Pick a card, any card"
May 27, 2006
Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.
"Will the major media finally cover the electronic election fraud issue?"
May 15, 2006
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman
"The money pit: Diebold vs. America "
May 15, 2006
Denis Wright
"Worst security flaw ever - 3 states invoke Diebold emergency procedures"
May 15, 2006
Black Box Voting
"Cranks and Kooks: Kerry won in '04"
May 11, 2006
Greg Palast
"Ohio 2004 election thief grabs Gov nod while (surprise! surprise!) voting machines malfunction"
May 5, 2006
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman
"Hand counted paper ballots in 2008"
April 14, 2006
Sheila Parks
"Busheviks connected to New Hampshire phone-jamming scheme"
April 14, 2006
The Ostroy Report
"Are mainstream churches finally standing up to the GOP’s hateful “Christian” blitzkrieg?"
April 9, 2006
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman
"Thousands march in New Orleans for right for Katrina survivors to vote in the city’s April 22 election"
April 7, 2006
Rainbow/PUSH Coalition
"Shocking Diebold conflict of interest revelations from Secretary of State further taint Ohio's electoral credibility"
April 6, 2006
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman
"Faith-based voting"
March 30, 2006
Robert C. Koehler, Tribune Media Services
"Targeting the voters in Toledo"
March 30, 2006
Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.
"Targeting the voters in Cincinnati"
March 30, 2006
Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.
"Through a glass Darkely"
March 30, 2006
Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.
"Is the Mainstream Media finally getting half the rigged voting machine story?"
March 29, 2006
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman
"Please help Clint Curtis"
March 23, 2006
Robert Lockwood Mills
"Utah testing of the Diebold touch-screen reveals new problems"
March 19, 2006
Black Box Voting
"Trust us"
March 17, 2006
Robert C. Koehler, Tribune Media Services
"Harman vs. Winograd, tough choice?"
March 17, 2006
David Swanson
"Why did J. Kenneth Blackwell seek, then hide, his association with super-rich extremists and e-voting magnates?"
March 10, 2006
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman
"Did 308,000 cancelled Ohio voter registrations put Bush back in the White House?"
February 28, 2006
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman
"Statisticians recommend new measures to ensure vote count accuracy, release "Ohio’s 2004 exit poll analysis for novices”"
February 17, 2006
Kathy Dopp
"As Alito takes Supreme Court seat, Ohio GOP guts election protection "
February 1, 2006
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman
"The Harri Hursti hack and its importance to our nation"
January 29, 2006
Susan Pynchon, Florida Fair Elections Coalition
"Programmer Jeff Dean worked for chief of White House Plumbers unit"
January 26, 2006
Bev Harris, Kathleen Wynne, and John Howard
"Free Press Editor in Film at Sundance"
January 23, 2006
Free Press Staff
"PA activists sue to vote on machines"
January 20, 2006
Rady Ananda
"Important documents"
January 20, 2006
Free Press staff
"The gun is smoking - The gun is smoking - 2004 Ohio precinct-level exit poll data show virtually irrefutable evidence of vote miscount"
January 18, 2006
Kathy Dopp and Ron Baiman
"Recipe for hacking ES&S and Sequoia, Hursti-style"
January 4, 2006
Black Box Voting
"What’s all the fuss about Diebold in Florida and California?"
January 4, 2006
John Washburn, for VoteTrustUSA
"New info may take out Diebold touchscreens"
January 1, 2006
Black Box Voting
Read Articles by Year:
2007 2006 2005 2004
2003 2002 2001 2000
All content © 1970-2008
The Columbus Free Press
Disclaimer