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Departments Election Issues Warren County revisited The more closely one examines election results, the larger the anomalies become. Just as election results at the county level mask anomalies at the precinct level, election results at the precinct level mask anomalies at the ballot level. This is because there will always be some who vote in a manner opposite to the anomaly. For example, Ellen Connally got more votes than John Kerry in only 12 of 88 counties in Ohio. Analysis at the county level, or at the precinct level, will underestimate the number of persons who were counted as having voted for both George W. Bush and Ellen Connally, because some people voted for both John Kerry and Thomas Moyer. Similarly, where George W. Bush got more votes than Issue One, county or precinct analysis will underestimate the number of persons who were counted as having voted for gay marriage and for George W. Bush, because some people voted against gay marriage and for John Kerry. Warren County was one of the few which exhibited both a “Connally anomaly” and a “gay-friendly Republican anomaly.” At present we have photographs of punch card ballots for twelve precincts in Warren County. I have had time to analyze the ballots for four of these precincts. Analysis at the precinct level had indicated that at least 155 persons must have voted for both Bush and Connally, and that 256 persons must have voted for gay marriage and for Bush. These are the numbers upon which I based my previous estimate of the number of votes shifted from Kerry to Bush. I always believed those estimates to be conservative. Analysis of the actual ballots reveals that in these four precincts, 486 persons were counted as having voted for both Bush and Connally, and 472 persons were counted as having voted for gay marriage and for Bush. Thus it can now be demonstrated that if 256 votes are subtracted from Bush’s total, he still gets 230 of 842 (27.3%) of the Connally voters, and 216 of 940 (23.0%) of the gay marriage supporters. These percentages appear too high when compared to these: Kerry got only 159 of 1422 (11.2%) of the Moyer voters, and only 175 (9.5%) of the gay marriage opponents. Considering that 11.2% of the Connally voters would amount to 94 votes, and 9.5% of the gay marriage supporters would amount to 89 votes, I may have underestimated the vote shift by 127 to 136 votes in these four precincts, or 32 to 34 votes per precinct. There are 157 precincts in Warren County. It is possible that I have underestimated the vote shift by 5000 votes, and the net loss to Kerry by 10,000 votes, countywide. TOTAL, FOUR PRECINCTS Analysis: Bush got 1263 of 1422 (88.8%) of the Moyer voters 486 of 842 (57.7%) of the Connally voters 1661 of 1836 (90.5%) of the Yes voters 472 of 940 (50.2%) of the No voters
If 256 votes were shifted: Bush got 1263 of 1422 (88.8%) of the Moyer voters 230 of 842 (27.3%) of the Connally voters 1661 of 1836 (90.5%) of the Yes voters 216 of 940 (23.0%) of the No voters |
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