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Departments Election Issues Provisional ballots in Cuyahoga County by Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D. December 24, 2004 I give my heartfelt thanks to Joe Knapp for his Cuyahoga County spreadsheet, to Bernard Windham for forwarding it to me, and to Roman Sasik for compiling the table of precincts according to my instructions. Provisional ballots are issued to persons who show up at the polls on Election Day but find that, for whatever reason, their names are not on the voter rolls, or find their right to vote challenged by a member of the opposing party. They are asked to provide certain information when casting their provisional ballots, and this information can be checked afterward to determine if they were eligible to vote. If so, then their votes are to be counted. One of the most common reasons for the issuance of a provisional ballot is that the voter has gone to the wrong precinct, in which case, according to instructions from the Ohio Secretary of State, the vote is not to be counted. In many cases in Cuyahoga County there were polling stations for several precincts at the same polling place. Many voters waited in long lines at the wrong table in the right building, were issued provisional ballots, and later found out that their votes were not counted. According to the Ohio Secretary of State, there were 24,788 provisional ballots issued in Cuyahoga County, 15.95% of the state wide total, and more than in any other county. Franklin County at 14,446 and Hamilton County at 14,386 were a distant second and third. The data used in this study include the provisional ballots that were counted. I have no data at the precinct level for provisional ballots that were rejected, and no data at any level as to why. OVERVIEW OF BALLOTS CAST AND COUNTED, CUYAHOGA COUNTY Official Unofficial Difference Ballots Cast 687,260 665,334 21,926 Regular 602,048 584,710 17,338 Absentee 85,212 80,624 4,588 Votes Counted 673,729 652,381 21,348 Regular 591,347 574,475 16,872 Absentee 82,382 77,906 4,476 In Cuyahoga County, according to the unofficial results, which did not include provisional ballots, there were 584,710 ballots cast, and 574,475 votes counted for president, exclusive of absentee ballots. The official results reported 602,048 ballots cast, and 591,346 votes counted for president, exclusive of absentee ballots. The difference represents the number of provisional ballots. Of the 24,788 provisional ballots issued in Cuyahoga County, 17,338 (69.95%) were ruled valid, and 16,872 (68.07%) were counted as votes for president. PROVISIONAL BALLOTS BY WARD, CUYAHOGA COUNTY Ward Turnout Votes Prov % Prov Bush Kerry WARD 1 62.22% 10622 263 2.48% 13 234 WARD 2 57.91% 9164 334 3.64% 22 295 WARD 3 56.53% 9191 275 2.99% 12 245 WARD 4 55.15% 8392 307 3.66% 10 251 WARD 5 45.48% 7166 278 3.88% 2 248 WARD 6 48.74% 7855 314 4.00% 18 223 WARD 7 47.49% 7933 447 5.63% 12 410 WARD 8 53.01% 8270 317 3.83% 10 286 WARD 9 55.31% 8402 262 3.12% 14 244 WARD 10 54.44% 8515 580 6.81% 13 536 WARD 11 55.47% 8613 177 2.06% 10 139 WARD 12 49.35% 5976 314 5.25% 42 261 WARD 13 45.16% 8147 377 4.63% 71 291 WARD 14 42.06% 5832 255 4.37% 45 196 WARD 15 57.20% 7847 303 3.86% 71 216 WARD 16 62.67% 8913 301 3.38% 101 188 WARD 17 44.94% 5901 247 4.19% 52 183 WARD 18 52.52% 7694 287 3.73% 49 223 WARD 19 56.50% 7917 318 4.02% 51 247 WARD 20 61.17% 8898 285 3.20% 78 188 WARD 21 62.34% 10912 371 3.40% 142 220 Total 55.63% 172160 6612 3.84% 838 5324 If 6,612 of the valid provisional ballots were from Cleveland, and 6,221 have been counted for president (59 being cast for third-party candidates), this would mean that 10,726 valid provisional ballots were from the suburbs, and 10,651 have been counted as votes for president. This, in turn, would mean that the rate of spoilage, of blank or void ballots, was 5.91% in Cleveland, and only 0.70% in the suburbs. There were 172,160 ballots cast in Cleveland, 28.60% of the county wide total, excluding absentee ballots, which are reported on at at-large basis, county wide. The percentage of valid provisional ballots from Cleveland was 38.14% of the county wide total, which is an indication that Cleveland precincts were targeted by challengers at the polling places, whose job it was to question the voting credentials of as many people as possible. Altogether there were 212 precincts in Cuyahoga County where 20 or more provisional ballots were actually counted, among an unknown number issued. There are 419 precincts in Cleveland. 122 of them (29.1%) are on this list. There are 1017 precincts outside of Cleveland. 90 of them (8.8%) are on this list. This disparity is another indication that Cleveland precincts were targeted by challengers at the polling places. The list shown below is abbreviated, so as not to overwhelm the reader. PRECINCTS WITH 20 OR MORE PROVISIONAL BALLOTS COUNTED Precinct Ballots Cast Prov. % Prov Bush Kerry CLEVELAND 10L 498 279 56.02% 5 263 CLEVELAND 7E 490 110 22.45% 2 102 OLMSTED TWP G 1085 119 10.97% 69 49 CLEVELAND 13D 285 30 10.53% 1 29 BEACHWOOD J 309 32 10.36% 6 22 WESTLAKE 3-E 247 25 10.12% 13 10 NORTH ROYALTON 4-C 374 37 9.89% 18 19 CLEVELAND 21G 404 37 9.16% 8 29 CLEVELAND 19P 440 37 8.41% 3 35 CLEVELAND 7J 432 36 8.33% 1 32 CLEVELAND 12D 375 31 8.27% 9 19 CLEVELAND 10Q 441 36 8.16% 0 33 NORTH OLMSTED 4-C 282 23 8.16% 5 18 CLEVELAND 18D 433 35 8.08% 7 26 CLEVELAND 14F 299 24 8.03% 2 20 CLEVELAND HTS 1-B 428 34 7.94% 7 26 CLEVELAND 17N 311 24 7.72% 5 16 CLEVELAND 8A 367 28 7.63% 0 28 NORTH ROYALTON 3-D 476 36 7.56% 16 20 EAST CLEVELAND 4-B 358 27 7.54% 1 23 LAKEWOOD 4-G 378 28 7.41% 3 25 CLEVELAND 17O 399 29 7.27% 3 26 RICHMOND HTS 2-B 292 21 7.19% 1 17 CLEVELAND 5G 482 34 7.05% 0 32 CLEVELAND 13K 356 25 7.02% 6 18 CLEVELAND 11M 557 39 7.00% 3 36 CLEVELAND 12H 445 31 6.97% 7 25 CLEVELAND 17E 431 30 6.96% 8 20 CLEVELAND 12I 360 25 6.94% 3 20 LAKEWOOD 4-E 322 22 6.83% 4 15 EAST CLEVELAND 2-C 368 25 6.79% 2 18 BEDFORD 4-A 503 34 6.76% 4 29 CLEVELAND 21J 535 36 6.73% 21 15 MIDDLEBURG HTS 1-D 728 48 6.59% 23 25 SOLON 2-C 396 26 6.57% 8 18 LAKEWOOD 4-P 320 21 6.56% 6 14 CLEVELAND 21D 473 31 6.55% 6 25 STRONGSVILLE 2-A 351 23 6.55% 11 11 CLEVELAND 7G 444 29 6.53% 1 27 LAKEWOOD 3-L 496 32 6.45% 5 25 CLEVELAND 4H 513 33 6.43% 0 24 WARRENSVILLE HTS 7-B 659 42 6.37% 1 39 CLEVELAND 4K 440 28 6.36% 0 26 CLEVELAND 7U 472 30 6.36% 1 26 WARRENSVILLE HTS 6-B 410 26 6.34% 1 24 CLEVELAND 17I 429 27 6.29% 7 21 LAKEWOOD 4-H 334 21 6.29% 5 15 CLEVELAND 7P 400 25 6.25% 0 23 CLEVELAND 6I 369 23 6.23% 0 22 CLEVELAND 6M 467 29 6.21% 0 8 PARMA 1-E 339 21 6.19% 6 15 BEDFORD HTS 2-C 436 27 6.19% 1 24 CLEVELAND 12N 438 27 6.16% 2 24 CLEVELAND 15F 457 28 6.13% 2 26 EUCLID 2-C 637 39 6.12% 5 32 CLEVELAND 2J 429 26 6.06% 0 25 CLEVELAND 11L 331 20 6.04% 0 18 BEDFORD HTS 1-D 633 38 6.00% 1 35 CLEVELAND 5M 451 27 5.99% 0 28 CLEVELAND 12G 351 21 5.98% 4 16 CLEVELAND 12K 335 20 5.97% 3 16 CLEVELAND 8D 439 26 5.92% 1 23 CLEVELAND 8J 423 25 5.91% 0 21 CLEVELAND 11Q 390 23 5.90% 2 20 PARMA 4-B 441 26 5.90% 7 16 CLEVELAND 13W 343 20 5.83% 4 16 LAKEWOOD 2-Q 397 23 5.79% 4 18 MIDDLEBURG HTS 2-D 417 24 5.76% 12 12 CLEVELAND 11O 400 23 5.75% 2 17 CLEVELAND 6T 402 23 5.72% 4 17 CLEVELAND 5T 682 39 5.72% 0 36 CLEVELAND 6N 420 24 5.71% 0 24 EUCLID 2-B 525 30 5.71% 4 23 CLEVELAND 1D 439 25 5.69% 1 23 CLEVELAND 13N 599 34 5.68% 6 25 CLEVELAND 13X 406 23 5.67% 0 21 CLEVELAND 3Q 389 22 5.66% 0 22 CLEVELAND 11J 373 21 5.63% 4 16 CLEVELAND HTS 3-E 516 29 5.62% 3 21 CLEVELAND 18J 428 24 5.61% 1 23 CLEVELAND 20E 482 27 5.60% 7 19 CLEVELAND 14K 393 22 5.60% 4 15 CLEVELAND 18F 465 26 5.59% 3 21 CLEVELAND 12B 449 25 5.57% 1 23 CLEVELAND 9M 504 28 5.56% 2 24 EAST CLEVELAND 4-E 486 27 5.56% 2 25 LAKEWOOD 3-M 378 21 5.56% 8 12 ROCKY RIVER 3-A 434 24 5.53% 13 9 Among the precincts where 20 or more provisional ballots were counted, there were 15 precincts where the provisional count exceeded 8% of total ballots cast. Of these, 10 were in Cleveland, and 5 were in the suburbs. There were 58 precincts where the provisional count exceeded 6%. Of these, 34 were in Cleveland, and 22 were in the suburbs. There were 88 precincts where the provisional count exceeded 5.5%. Of these, 57 were in Cleveland, and 31 were in the suburbs. There do not appear to have been any specially targeted wards. Among the 212 precincts where 20 or more provisional ballots were counted, every one of Cleveland’s 21 wards is represented, with frequencies ranging from 2 precincts in Ward 17 to 11 precincts in Ward 13. The whole City of Cleveland was targeted. Easily the most interesting case is Precinct 10L in Cleveland. In my groundbreaking paper, “Stealing Votes in Cleveland,” I called attention to Precinct 10L and 26 other precincts because of their reported voter turnout of less than 40%, and to seven entire wards because of their reported voter turnout of less than 50%, which I found to be simply not credible. I hoped the correct numbers would emerge, knowing that “Some, but not all, of the unreported votes will turn up as provisional ballots or uncounted punch cards.” The original paper is available online at freepress.org/images/columns/steal_cleveland.pdf. In the unofficial results dated November 8, 2004, Precinct 10L reported 886 registered voters, 219 ballots cast, and a turnout of 24.72%. The vote was 207 for Kerry, 7 for Bush. Now, it turns out, according to the official results dated December 1, 2004, there were 498 ballots cast, turnout was 56.20%, and the vote was 470 for Kerry, 12 for Bush. Think about it. There were 219 persons allowed to vote unmolested, 279 persons forced to fill out provisional ballots, and indeterminate numbers who were so intimidated or discouraged that they never voted at all. In Precinct 7E, the unofficial results were 949 registered voters, 380 ballots cast, turnout 40.04% (which allowed this precinct to escape my scrutiny), and the vote was 348 for Kerry, 10 for Bush. Now, it turns out, there were 490 ballots cast, turnout was 51.63%, and the vote was 450 for Kerry, 12 for Bush. Perhaps the correct numbers have emerged in Precincts 10L and 7E, but if so, they are the exception, not the rule. Here is a table of the 27 precincts, with the unofficial vote and turnout numbers alongside the provisional ballots counted: PRECINCTS FROM “STEALING VOTES IN CLEVELAND” Precinct Bush Kerry Turnout Bush Kerry CLEVELAND 2D 4 99 39.92% 0 2 CLEVELAND 2N 22 94 35.63% 2 5 CLEVELAND 5C 29 195 28.97% 0 8 CLEVELAND 5I 21 210 31.92% 0 2 CLEVELAND 5J 20 127 32.91% 0 9 CLEVELAND 5L 9 218 35.06% 0 11 CLEVELAND 5O 21 98 39.69% 0 3 CLEVELAND 5P 8 21 32.67% 0 0 CLEVELAND 6B 4 82 21.80% 0 1 CLEVELAND 6C 1 45 7.10% 0 5 CLEVELAND 6D 5 127 28.83% 0 3 CLEVELAND 6K 27 161 33.22% 0 4 CLEVELAND 6W 8 104 39.02% 0 9 CLEVELAND 7C 10 188 35.86% 0 7 CLEVELAND 7K 5 78 34.71% 2 11 CLEVELAND 7V 33 249 29.25% 0 6 CLEVELAND 10L 7 207 24.72% 5 263 CLEVELAND 11U 25 235 34.62% 0 12 CLEVELAND 13D 42 207 13.05% 1 29 CLEVELAND 13F 4 156 19.60% 0 4 CLEVELAND 13H 10 71 31.67% 0 0 CLEVELAND 13O 5 44 21.01% 0 1 CLEVELAND 13W 60 252 32.73% 4 16 CLEVELAND 13Y 4 13 30.36% 0 0 CLEVELAND 15B 17 70 32.96% 0 1 CLEVELAND 15S 32 78 39.78% 3 4 CLEVELAND 19O 44 135 37.68% 1 7 The correct numbers have not emerged. In Precinct 13D, where 30 provisional ballots have been counted, the official turnout is 14.58% (1954 registered voters, 285 ballots cast). In Precinct 6C, where 5 provisional ballots have been counted, the official turnout is 7.85% (662 registered voters, 52 ballots cast). These are total ballots cast, including any uncounted blank or void punch cards. These numbers simply cannot be right. This is not a matter of “professional opinion.” This is election fraud. Votes have been stolen from John Kerry in Cleveland. How many votes were stolen we will likely never know. There are still 13,531 uncounted regular ballots in Cuyahoga County, 4,708 of them in Cleveland. There are still 7,450 uncounted provisional ballots county wide that were ruled invalid for reasons undisclosed, and another 466 that were ruled valid and still not counted, 391 of them in Cleveland. And suppression of turnout, officially below 60% in 17 of 21 wards in Cleveland, has shaved another 14,000 votes from John Kerry’s margin of victory in Cleveland. Email this article to a friend |
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