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BANGKOK, Thailand -- Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, a hawkish royalist who favors Thailand's politically powerful army, won the most seats in Sunday's (Feb. 8) general elections, outmaneuvering his progressive rival who wanted to reform the military and monarchy.
Mr. Anutin's victory is partly a reward for the U.S.-backed military's strong performance against Cambodia during their smoldering border war, which he inherited when became prime minister in September.
Mr. Anutin thanked "all Thais, no matter if you voted for us or not," after his Bhumjaithai (Proud to be Thai) Party's unassailable lead appeared in the vote counting.
When 94 percent of the votes were counted Mr. Anutin's BJT won 193 seats, the People's Party scored 118, the Pheu Thai party took 74, and a new Klatham Party nabbed 58.
The results showed Mr. Anutin's party winning the most seats in parliament's 500-member House of Representatives but not a majority.
In Thailand, if no party scores a majority of at least 251 seats, parliamentarians must agree on a majority coalition and name a prime minister.
Mr. Anutin relies on technocrats and an established political machine.
A few years ago, he led a campaign which decriminalized cannabis, resulting in a multi-million dollar industry and thousands of registered and unregistered dispensaries.
During the next few weeks, Mr. Anutin is expected to form a coalition and be officially confirmed prime minister by the Election Commission and palace.
Led by his coalition, Bangkok is expected to continue perceiving Washington as militarily reliable but politically confusing and demanding, analysts said.
In contrast, Bangkok will continue to view Beijing as a dependable economic, cultural and diplomatic partner, they said.
"Before 2025, major candidates would have been tilted towards the United States. Now, the U.S. is undergoing a fundamental change, making China appear to be a more reliable country," Kantathi Suphamongkhon, a former foreign minister, said in an interview.
Another former foreign minister, Kasit Piromya, said in an interview: "The overall relationship between Thailand and China, based on mutual respect and moderation, will continue.
"There will be questions about the utility of the long-held Thai-U.S. alliance. The U.S. side pursues its own national interest, and the rest of the world has to adjust and make deals," Mr. Kasit said.
"The Bhumjaithai Party has gained public respect for giving respect and support to the armed forces. The People's Party has been perceived to be anti-military establishment," Mr. Kasit said.
Most candidates expressed unconditional support for the armed forces to decide how to proceed in Thailand's smoldering six-month-long conflict with Cambodia, including when to open their closed border gates.
This Buddhist-majority, Southeast Asian treaty ally of the U.S. has suffered more than a dozen military coups since World War II, making Thailand's current civilian-led government a rare exception after the latest 2014 putsch.
Mr. Anutin enjoys support from "the military, the Constitutional Court, the Election Commission, and the National Anti-Corruption Commission, all arch-royalist institutions which want a conservative like Anutin to become the next prime minister," Paul Chambers, an associate senior fellow at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, said in an interview.
"The military has linked itself closer to the Bhumjaithai political party, making clear to everyone that it supports Anutin," he said.
Prime Minister Anutin "has become the military's stooge. He will do almost anything for them. He would very likely persist as the armed forces' crony," Mr. Chambers said.
Some analysts had speculated the conservative Mr. Anutin's current coalition government could be toppled by an unpredictable progressive groundswell -- especially among Gen Y and Gen Z voters -- for Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut.
Mr. Natthaphong leads the idealistic People's Party (PP) which wants to curb the military's and monarchy's powers.
The PP came second place in the election, but Mr. Natthaphong said they would not join any coalition with Mr. Anutin.
If Mr. Natthaphong is unable or unwilling to join a coalition led by Mr. Anutin's BJT or other conservative pro-military parties, his PP will remain in the opposition where the party's previous incarnations ended up, despite impressive wins in 2023 elections.
Most parties were expected to shy away from joining a coalition led by Mr. Natthaphong's PP, which they perceive as too radical and a threat to the military and monarchy.
Mr. Natthaphong acknowledged his party's criticism of the military affected his chances at the polls.
"Of course, the [border] conflict has increased the military’s popularity, which may complicate our push for reform and our efforts to professionalize the armed forces," Mr. Natthaphong said in an interview before election.
Mr. Natthaphong wanted "to improve efficiency and ensure that the principle of civilian control over the military remains paramount."
He also wanted to achieve "strategic autonomy" in Bangkok's relations with Washington and Beijing.
"Instead of tying ourselves to either camp of the great powers, we will focus on working to build a concert of middle powers, such as those in ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations), wider Asia, Oceania, Europe, and even the Americas."
The PP offered voters "progressive values" including, "LGBTQ+ rights and the pink economy, sustainable hospitality, health care and related research, combating transnational organized crime, and humanitarian work," he said.
Mr. Anutin had the best chance to be reelected "because of his leadership position during the clashes between the Thai and Cambodian armies, causing a strong nationalist trend," Wanwichit Boonprong, an advisor to the defense ministry, said in an interview.
"Anutin was strategically chosen by the conservative faction as their representative and a strategic option to prevent the People's Party from winning the election," Mr. Wanwichit said.
"The popularity of the military has been enhanced significantly because of the war with Cambodia. Generally, the Thai public is satisfied with the military's performance during the war," former foreign minister Mr. Kantathi said.
The fighting has quieted in recent weeks after Washington and Beijing pushed Bangkok and Phnom Penh to sign a ceasefire.
At the height of the clashes, Thailand's U.S.-supplied F-16 warplanes and Swedish Gripen jets bombed Cambodia along the frontier, pulverizing suspected military bases and strongholds.
Militarily-weaker Cambodia mustered its unguided, multiple rocket launchers and artillery which blasted Thailand's border zones, inflicting much less damage.
More than 100 people, including troops and civilians on both sides, have perished since fighting flared in July.
Demarcation of their disputed, 500-mile-long frontier remains unresolved and both nations continue to rhetorically threaten and needle each other.
Widespread strident wartime nationalism and militaristic jingoism appeared to have eroded public support for the PP's policies to reform the military and monarchy.
As a result, the PP recently softened its previously blunt criticism of the armed forces' political entitlements, lucrative businesses, compulsory military conscription, bloated number of generals, and impunity whenever they stage a coup.
"It will come down to who is most adept at coalition building, and that may play to Bhumjaithai's advantages more than the People's Party," Greg Poling, Southeast Asia Program Director at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in an interview.
"The only ones offering a clear blueprint to address those challenges seem to be People's Party, but elites are not willing to take that medicine," Mr. Poling said.
"Thailand's biggest challenges are structural. It trails far behind neighbors in economic competitiveness, education, and GDP growth," Mr. Poling said.
The war also devastated the previously popular Pheu Thai (For Thais) Party and its politically inexperienced former prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, diminishing the party's chances in the election.
Results showed the PTP trailed third in the election, behind the PP.
Mr. Anutin was expected to invite the populist PTP to join his coalition if he needed more partners.
Ms. Paetongtarn became prime minister in a 2024 parliamentary vote supported by military-backed coalition partners who appeared desperate to stop the PP's then-leader Pita Limjaroenrat and smother his criticism of the military and monarchy.
Ms. Paetongtarn's coalition government collapsed in July at the start of the Thailand-Cambodian border war.
She was heard obsequiously cozying up to Cambodia's de facto leader Hun Sen, ingratiatingly calling him "uncle" and dissing the Royal Thai Army during a leaked phone conversation between the two leaders in June.
Thailand's Constitutional Court suspended Ms. Paetongtarn for "ethical misconduct."
Mr. Anutin told a campaign rally: "I am not uncle's nephew, so I will never carry out the demands of an uncle who is outside the country."
Mr. Anutin is a construction tycoon, former health minister and former interior minister.
Expressing outrage about Ms. Paetongtarn's friendly links with Cambodia's leader at the start of the their border war, Mr. Anutin pulled his BJT out of her coalition, prompting its collapse.
Parliament elected Mr. Anutin as prime minister in September. He then formed a coalition without the PTP and promised elections on Feb. 8.
In Sunday's (Feb. 8) election, the PTP offered another relatively inexperienced candidate, Yodchanan Wongsawat, as their candidate to be prime minister.
Mr. Yodchanan is an academic related to Ms. Paetongtarn and her imprisoned father, the disgraced former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra who was toppled in a 2006 coup but still heads his dynastic political party.
Mr. Yodchanan, 46, is the son of former prime minister Somchai Wongsawat whose wife Yaowapha Wongsawat is Mr. Thaksin's younger sister -- making Mr. Yodchanan the nephew of Mr. Thasksin.
Voters on Feb. 8 were also asked if Thailand's constitution should be rewritten yet again, because it was created in 2017 under the military's domination which shredded a 2007 constitution which, in turn, replaced a 2007 charter.
The rewrite proposal asked only if the constitution should be changed, but did not specify in which way, making it a confusing choice for many voters, analysts said.
Election results showed a majority of voters favored rewriting the constitution.
***
Richard S. Ehrlich is a Bangkok-based American foreign correspondent reporting from Asia since 1978, and winner of Columbia University's Foreign Correspondents' Award. Excerpts from his two new nonfiction books, "Rituals. Killers. Wars. & Sex. -- Tibet, India, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka & New York" and "Apocalyptic Tribes, Smugglers & Freaks" are available at
https://asia-correspondent.tumblr.com
Mr. Anutin's victory is partly a reward for the U.S.-backed military's strong performance against Cambodia during their smoldering border war, which he inherited when became prime minister in September.
Mr. Anutin thanked "all Thais, no matter if you voted for us or not," after his Bhumjaithai (Proud to be Thai) Party's unassailable lead appeared in the vote counting.
When 94 percent of the votes were counted Mr. Anutin's BJT won 193 seats, the People's Party scored 118, the Pheu Thai party took 74, and a new Klatham Party nabbed 58.
The results showed Mr. Anutin's party winning the most seats in parliament's 500-member House of Representatives but not a majority.
In Thailand, if no party scores a majority of at least 251 seats, parliamentarians must agree on a majority coalition and name a prime minister.
Mr. Anutin relies on technocrats and an established political machine.
A few years ago, he led a campaign which decriminalized cannabis, resulting in a multi-million dollar industry and thousands of registered and unregistered dispensaries.
During the next few weeks, Mr. Anutin is expected to form a coalition and be officially confirmed prime minister by the Election Commission and palace.
Led by his coalition, Bangkok is expected to continue perceiving Washington as militarily reliable but politically confusing and demanding, analysts said.
In contrast, Bangkok will continue to view Beijing as a dependable economic, cultural and diplomatic partner, they said.
"Before 2025, major candidates would have been tilted towards the United States. Now, the U.S. is undergoing a fundamental change, making China appear to be a more reliable country," Kantathi Suphamongkhon, a former foreign minister, said in an interview.
Another former foreign minister, Kasit Piromya, said in an interview: "The overall relationship between Thailand and China, based on mutual respect and moderation, will continue.
"There will be questions about the utility of the long-held Thai-U.S. alliance. The U.S. side pursues its own national interest, and the rest of the world has to adjust and make deals," Mr. Kasit said.
"The Bhumjaithai Party has gained public respect for giving respect and support to the armed forces. The People's Party has been perceived to be anti-military establishment," Mr. Kasit said.
Most candidates expressed unconditional support for the armed forces to decide how to proceed in Thailand's smoldering six-month-long conflict with Cambodia, including when to open their closed border gates.
This Buddhist-majority, Southeast Asian treaty ally of the U.S. has suffered more than a dozen military coups since World War II, making Thailand's current civilian-led government a rare exception after the latest 2014 putsch.
Mr. Anutin enjoys support from "the military, the Constitutional Court, the Election Commission, and the National Anti-Corruption Commission, all arch-royalist institutions which want a conservative like Anutin to become the next prime minister," Paul Chambers, an associate senior fellow at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, said in an interview.
"The military has linked itself closer to the Bhumjaithai political party, making clear to everyone that it supports Anutin," he said.
Prime Minister Anutin "has become the military's stooge. He will do almost anything for them. He would very likely persist as the armed forces' crony," Mr. Chambers said.
Some analysts had speculated the conservative Mr. Anutin's current coalition government could be toppled by an unpredictable progressive groundswell -- especially among Gen Y and Gen Z voters -- for Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut.
Mr. Natthaphong leads the idealistic People's Party (PP) which wants to curb the military's and monarchy's powers.
The PP came second place in the election, but Mr. Natthaphong said they would not join any coalition with Mr. Anutin.
If Mr. Natthaphong is unable or unwilling to join a coalition led by Mr. Anutin's BJT or other conservative pro-military parties, his PP will remain in the opposition where the party's previous incarnations ended up, despite impressive wins in 2023 elections.
Most parties were expected to shy away from joining a coalition led by Mr. Natthaphong's PP, which they perceive as too radical and a threat to the military and monarchy.
Mr. Natthaphong acknowledged his party's criticism of the military affected his chances at the polls.
"Of course, the [border] conflict has increased the military’s popularity, which may complicate our push for reform and our efforts to professionalize the armed forces," Mr. Natthaphong said in an interview before election.
Mr. Natthaphong wanted "to improve efficiency and ensure that the principle of civilian control over the military remains paramount."
He also wanted to achieve "strategic autonomy" in Bangkok's relations with Washington and Beijing.
"Instead of tying ourselves to either camp of the great powers, we will focus on working to build a concert of middle powers, such as those in ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations), wider Asia, Oceania, Europe, and even the Americas."
The PP offered voters "progressive values" including, "LGBTQ+ rights and the pink economy, sustainable hospitality, health care and related research, combating transnational organized crime, and humanitarian work," he said.
Mr. Anutin had the best chance to be reelected "because of his leadership position during the clashes between the Thai and Cambodian armies, causing a strong nationalist trend," Wanwichit Boonprong, an advisor to the defense ministry, said in an interview.
"Anutin was strategically chosen by the conservative faction as their representative and a strategic option to prevent the People's Party from winning the election," Mr. Wanwichit said.
"The popularity of the military has been enhanced significantly because of the war with Cambodia. Generally, the Thai public is satisfied with the military's performance during the war," former foreign minister Mr. Kantathi said.
The fighting has quieted in recent weeks after Washington and Beijing pushed Bangkok and Phnom Penh to sign a ceasefire.
At the height of the clashes, Thailand's U.S.-supplied F-16 warplanes and Swedish Gripen jets bombed Cambodia along the frontier, pulverizing suspected military bases and strongholds.
Militarily-weaker Cambodia mustered its unguided, multiple rocket launchers and artillery which blasted Thailand's border zones, inflicting much less damage.
More than 100 people, including troops and civilians on both sides, have perished since fighting flared in July.
Demarcation of their disputed, 500-mile-long frontier remains unresolved and both nations continue to rhetorically threaten and needle each other.
Widespread strident wartime nationalism and militaristic jingoism appeared to have eroded public support for the PP's policies to reform the military and monarchy.
As a result, the PP recently softened its previously blunt criticism of the armed forces' political entitlements, lucrative businesses, compulsory military conscription, bloated number of generals, and impunity whenever they stage a coup.
"It will come down to who is most adept at coalition building, and that may play to Bhumjaithai's advantages more than the People's Party," Greg Poling, Southeast Asia Program Director at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in an interview.
"The only ones offering a clear blueprint to address those challenges seem to be People's Party, but elites are not willing to take that medicine," Mr. Poling said.
"Thailand's biggest challenges are structural. It trails far behind neighbors in economic competitiveness, education, and GDP growth," Mr. Poling said.
The war also devastated the previously popular Pheu Thai (For Thais) Party and its politically inexperienced former prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, diminishing the party's chances in the election.
Results showed the PTP trailed third in the election, behind the PP.
Mr. Anutin was expected to invite the populist PTP to join his coalition if he needed more partners.
Ms. Paetongtarn became prime minister in a 2024 parliamentary vote supported by military-backed coalition partners who appeared desperate to stop the PP's then-leader Pita Limjaroenrat and smother his criticism of the military and monarchy.
Ms. Paetongtarn's coalition government collapsed in July at the start of the Thailand-Cambodian border war.
She was heard obsequiously cozying up to Cambodia's de facto leader Hun Sen, ingratiatingly calling him "uncle" and dissing the Royal Thai Army during a leaked phone conversation between the two leaders in June.
Thailand's Constitutional Court suspended Ms. Paetongtarn for "ethical misconduct."
Mr. Anutin told a campaign rally: "I am not uncle's nephew, so I will never carry out the demands of an uncle who is outside the country."
Mr. Anutin is a construction tycoon, former health minister and former interior minister.
Expressing outrage about Ms. Paetongtarn's friendly links with Cambodia's leader at the start of the their border war, Mr. Anutin pulled his BJT out of her coalition, prompting its collapse.
Parliament elected Mr. Anutin as prime minister in September. He then formed a coalition without the PTP and promised elections on Feb. 8.
In Sunday's (Feb. 8) election, the PTP offered another relatively inexperienced candidate, Yodchanan Wongsawat, as their candidate to be prime minister.
Mr. Yodchanan is an academic related to Ms. Paetongtarn and her imprisoned father, the disgraced former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra who was toppled in a 2006 coup but still heads his dynastic political party.
Mr. Yodchanan, 46, is the son of former prime minister Somchai Wongsawat whose wife Yaowapha Wongsawat is Mr. Thaksin's younger sister -- making Mr. Yodchanan the nephew of Mr. Thasksin.
Voters on Feb. 8 were also asked if Thailand's constitution should be rewritten yet again, because it was created in 2017 under the military's domination which shredded a 2007 constitution which, in turn, replaced a 2007 charter.
The rewrite proposal asked only if the constitution should be changed, but did not specify in which way, making it a confusing choice for many voters, analysts said.
Election results showed a majority of voters favored rewriting the constitution.
***
Richard S. Ehrlich is a Bangkok-based American foreign correspondent reporting from Asia since 1978, and winner of Columbia University's Foreign Correspondents' Award. Excerpts from his two new nonfiction books, "Rituals. Killers. Wars. & Sex. -- Tibet, India, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka & New York" and "Apocalyptic Tribes, Smugglers & Freaks" are available at
https://asia-correspondent.tumblr.com